NRL Preview: Knights v Broncos

The Wolf doesn’t know how the Knights can pick themselves up for this contest after they inexplicably threw away last week’s match against the Bulldogs. The Broncos have named all of their Origin stars to back up, while Anthony Milford has been listed on an extended bench as he attempts to make his return from a shoulder injury.

History
The Knights have won just 1 of the last 11 against the Broncos. Brisbane have won five straight against the Knights with four of those by margins of 22 or more. The Broncos have not lost in the last five at Newcastle.

Form
Newcastle all but had their third win of the season away to Canterbury on Sunday but blew a 10-point lead with nine minutes to play to go down 20-18. The Knights are last on the ladder and are destined for the spoon with just three wins in the last two seasons. Newcastle have lost their last six and conceded 30-plus in four of them. Brisbane are fifth on the ladder with a 10-6 record. They have won just two of their last five and went into the bye with a horrific 42-12 home loss to Melbourne. Brisbane have conceded at least 18 in five straight.

Key Matchup
Trent Hodkinson v Ben Hunt: Hodkinson has come under fire for not taking the penalty goal to level the match against the Bulldogs, instead leaving it up to Brock Lamb to shank the kick. Hodkinson needed to show better leadership, but did produce his best match of the year, with two try-assists in the Knights heart-breaking loss. Hunt is listed on the bench for Queensland and should take his place in the side here. The stint in Queensland Cup could have been exactly what Hunt needed as he looks to finish his Broncos career on a strong note. He should carve up the Knights on Saturday night.

Stats That Matter
– Newcastle are 8-8 ATS with a 9-7 under number while Brisbane are 8-8 ATS with an 11-5 over number.

– The Knights have won just 1 of the last 11 against the Broncos.

– Brisbane have won five straight against the Knights with four of those by margins of 22 or more.

– The Broncos have not lost in the last five at Newcastle.

– Brisbane have not scored fewer than 31 points in their last five against the Knights.

– Newcastle have covered just 2 of their last 6 as a double digit home underdog.

– The Knights have gone under in their last six home games at night.

– Brisbane have gone over in their last five as a road favourite of more than a converted try.

– Brisbane are 13-8 ATS as a double digit road favourite.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf can’t see the Knights lifting for this one after the disappointment of last week. The Broncos have been completely dominant over the Novocastrians in recent years and nothing should change here. The Broncs in a canter.

How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 22

Best Bet
Brisbane -9.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 42.5 ($1.88)