Compared to the last two stages, boring. Unless you're a sprinter, of course, in which case the short, 178km flat run to Bergerac, briefly interrupted by two largely insignificant Category Four climbs, is your reward for surviving two punishing days in the hills. Come to think of it, the GC-teams will probably appreciate this stage too: a gentle meander through the Dordogne over a route that looks more like it was designed by the French Tourist Board than by a race director. It should end in a bunch sprint.
Who are the favourites?
Now that Arnaud Demare is out of the race - beaten by a combination of sickness and repeated ascending - the task faced by Marcel Kittel seems much easier. It's no surprise that he is the 1.92 favourite, because whilst Demare had provided some opposition as Kittel has gathered together three stage wins, the rest of the sprinters haven't had many answers to the German's power.
Who are the most likely outsiders?
The usual crew. Andre Greipel, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Nacer Bouhanni, Sonny Colbrelli, Dylan Groenewegen and Dan McLay are all capable of beating Kittel on their day, and having backed three of them to do just that - without success - on this Tour so far, it will be annoying if I miss out this time.
However, in the search for a bit of value this time, I would side with Edvald Boasson Hagen at 20.00. He was arguably the most impressive sprinter on both Stages Six and Seven, going ridiculously early in the finish into Troyes, and hitting the front too soon again on the run-in to Nuits-Saint-Georges. Representing Mark Cavendish's team, Dimension Data, Boasson Hagen will be keen to bring them some success, and whilst lead-out guru Mark Renshaw left the race on Stage 9 too, Boasson Hagen can still cause an upset.
What effect will the stage have on the overall markets?
Probably no effect at all. Chris Froome is now the 1.36 favourite to win the Tour overall and only some kind of calamity on this active-rest stage will change that. And with Demare's departure, Marcel Kittel will presumably want to score highly on both the intermediate and final sprints to increase his lead in the Green Jersey competition before Michael Matthews starts to claw points back on the hillier stages to come.
Recommended Bets
Back Edvald Boasson Hagen at 20.00
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment