AFL Preview: Suns v Magpies

Gold Coast v Collingwood

Saturday 4:35pm at Metricon Stadium

The loser of this 14th v 15th battle can say goodbye to their fading finals hopes.

Form

Gold Coast are 14th on the ladder with a 6-9 record. The Suns have won just 1 of their last 4 games, a home victory over lowly North Melbourne. Gold Coast have been kept to 73 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 and were hammered 118-51 by Sydney last week. The Suns rank 11th in scoring but a poor 17th in defence.

Collingwood have now lost four on the trot with their last three defeats coming by margins of four goals or greater. The Magpies are down to 15th on the ladder with a 5-10 record. They rank 12th in scoring and 13th in defence. Collingwood have conceded more than 100 points in three of their last four matches.

Stats That Matter

– Collingwood have won 4 of the 6 all-time matches with Gold Coast including the last two by margins of 69 and 71.

– Three of the last four Magpies-Suns games have gone under.

– This is the first game Gold Coast are favoured over Collingwood.

– The Suns are 34-28 ATS at Metricon since 2012.

– The Suns are 14-5 over as a home favourite at Metricon since 2012.

– Gold Coast are 11-8 ATS at Metricon as a favourite since 2012 including a 6-2 ATS record when favoured by fewer than three goals.

– Collingwood are 18-11 ATS with a 20-9 under record interstate since 2012.

– Collingwood are 12-6 ATS with a 12-6 under record as an interstate outsider since 2012.

– Favourites who scored fewer than 60 points last start cover at just 44%.

– Collingwood are 15-6 under after conceding 110 or more points.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Gold Coast 8-7, Collingwood 7-8

2017 Over-Under: Gold Coast 8-7, Collingwood 8-7

What To Expect

Brutal game for punters. Leaning towards Collingwood based on their strong interstate record. Best bet is the under. Collingwood are a huge under team interstate and after a poor defensive display so the angles are strong for a low-scorer.

How It’s Shaping Up

Collingwood by 4

Recommended Bet

Under 188.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets

Adam Treloar has kicked a goal in every game this year bar four so he is likely to hit a major against an ordinary Suns.

Recommended Bet

Adam Treloar Anytime Goal ($1.70)