AFL Preview: Power v Kangaroos

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Saturday 2:10pm at Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide need a win against lowly North Melbourne to keep their spot in the Top 4 with a marauding horde lining up behind them.

Form
Port Adelaide are fourth on the ladder with a 9-6 record while their metrics suggest they are a better team with the Power ranking top defensively and third in attack. The Power have won three of their last four with their only defeat coming against Richmond. Port are a pretty ordinary 4-3 at home this season.

North Melbourne have dropped five straight with their last four losses all by 19 points or fewer. The Kangaroos are now 17th on the ladder with a 4-11 record. North rank surprisingly high in scoring sitting seventh while they rate 15th defensively. The Kangaroos have failed to break 82 points in three of their last five.

Stats That Matter

– North Melbourne have won 7 of the last 11 matches against Port Adelaide.
– Port have covered 4 of the 5 games against North since 2012.
– The under has hit in 4 of the 5 Port-North games since 2012.
– Port are 27-17 under at Adelaide Oval since 2012.
– Port have covered just 4 of their last 11 at Adelaide Oval.
– North are 0-4 ATS at Adelaide Oval since 2012 with a 4-0 over record.
– Port have gone over in 5 of their last 6 day games at Adelaide Oval.
– Port are 9-5 ATS since 2012 as a favourite of 30 or more at Adelaide Oval.
– North have covered just 2 of their last 9 interstate getting four goals or more start.
– Interstate outsiders of 24-plus off scoring 85 or fewer cover at just 43% since 2012.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Port Adelaide 9-6, North Melbourne 6-9
2017 Over-Under: Port Adelaide 7-8, North Melbourne 9-6

What To Expect
Port Adelaide should win and cover against North. The Power have covered 4 of the last 5 against North and meet a North team that have never covered at Adelaide Oval. Port are reliable as big home favourites while interstate underdogs of four goals or more off a poor attacking display is bad, covering at just 43%.

How It’s Shaping Up
Port Adelaide by 49

Recommended Bet
Port Adelaide -36.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Robbie Gray has had four four-goal hauls this year and all of them have been against teams in the bottom-third of the league. Gray loves beating up on bad teams.

Recommended Bet
Robbie Gray 4+ Goals ($2.25)