AFL Preview Round 16: Lions v Blues

Brisbane v Carlton
Sat 1:45pm at The Gabba

The Lions and the Blues will battle for the Lukosius-Walsh Cup (the two potential #1 draft picks if you aren’t a draft nerd like Wolfie) at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon, in a game that could very well decide which poor club wins the wooden spoon. Chris Fagan’s cubs broke through for a much needed win last round with a 55-point thrashing of the Dockers in Perth, and they will be full of confidence after their attacking mindset and gameplan FINALLY paid off. The Blues, on the other hand, are remarkably consistent at not being very good for 4 quarters (or scoring more than 70 points) despite patches of enthusiasm, and they simply must win this game, green shoots or not.

Form

Brisbane (LLLLW) – They did it! They won! They won in Perth! There wasn’t many that picked this pregame (including Wolfie), but with the late withdrawal of Sandilands due to a calf injury suffered in the warm-up and the hamstring injury to Fyfe during the game it gave them the perfect chance to breakthrough for just their second win of 2018. Dayne Beams led from the front with his footy, as he has down remarkably since the weight of captaincy was lifted off his shoulders. He had 33 touches; Rising Star nominee Cameron Rayner was strong in his forward half presence, Stefan Martin had 46 hit-outs and 19 touches in Sandi’s absence while Jarrod Berry shadowed Fyfe well before he managed to break the shackles and provide fantastic impetus moving forward. Plenty to like about these young Cubs who take the game on.

Carlton (LLLLL) – Carlton have now won just 2 of their last 24 games, and it we’ve all grown very tired of Brendan Bolton’s excuses. Once again; Charlie Curnow, Patrick Cripps and Kade Simpson carried the majority of the team on their backs against Port Adelaide, and it a damning indictment on the youngsters in the team that 34 year old Simpson is leading the way with his run, carry and disposal. Their effort was very good in the first and third quarters against the Power, but youth can no longer be an excuse for this side only showing up for two quarters a match, so consistently! A side that has a similar age profile is the perfect chance to prove their effort is not conditional.

Stats That Matter– Brisbane has won 5 of the last 6 meetings
– Carlton are averaging just 63 points per game in 2018
– Mitch Robinson averages 24 disposals and 115 Fantasy Points per game against his old club, Carlton
– The Blues are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matches
– 6 of the Lions’ last 8 games have gone Overs
– Dayne Beams has had 110+ Fantasy Points in 7 of his last 9 matches, and he averages 111 per game against the Blues
– Both sides have won just 3 first halves this season

Betting Data

2018 Line: Brisbane- 7-7; Carlton- 8-6

2018 Over-Under: Brisbane- 7-7; Carlton- 7-7

What To Expect

A battle of 17th v 18th for punting? Pass! Wolfie does not like the short odds on offer for the Lions, or the spread, but the Wire to Wire market looks appealing for a couple of clubs whose fortunes fluctuate wildly during games thanks to their youth, and propensity to leak points. Don’t dive in too deep punters, but it is hard to see one side being on top for the entire contest.

How It’s Shaping UpBrisbane by 11

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Wire to Wire- Any Other Result ($2.10)
Value Bet: Brisbane 76-90 Total Points ($3.70)
Player Prop: Dayne Beams 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Lewis Taylor