AFL Preview Round 16: Power v Saints

Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Sat 4:35pm at Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide will be looking to push for a top 4 spot when they take on a resurgent St. Kilda side at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon. Beat the Saints here and the Power will have recorded 5 wins in a row for the first time in 4 years, and they will be full of confidence after beating both the Tigers and Demons in their past two games in Adelaide. Former Port assistant coach Alan Richardson will be doing everything in his power [pun intended] to ensure that doesn’t happen, and Richo will no doubt be relieved some of the spotlight is finally off him after he discovered a way to get his players to compete for 4 quarters for the first time this season. Will there be another upset or will the Power surge to the Top 4?

Form

Port Adelaide (LWWWW) – After falling agonisingly short against the Hawks in Round 11, the Power have now won 4 on the trot, with 2 of those coming against top 4 sides. Their clearance and tackling work is first-rate, with the side ranked #1 in the League for both measures- and this is mainly due to the deft ruck work of Paddy Ryder and the bullish characteristics of Wines, Powell-Pepper, Wingard and Rockliff around the ball. The forward line is finally looking to have settled into some rhythm and cohesion too, and there are several avenues to goal the Power can use to maximise any mis-matches with the opposition. Building very nicely. 

St. Kilda (LLLWW) – Astonishingly, the Saints are now gunning for 3 straight wins after all hope of either winning or scoring more goals than behinds seemed lost. They somehow conjured a rabbit out of a hat against the Suns when Jade Gresham weaved through a stoppage and put the Saints ahead by 2 in the dying seconds, and they brought that enthusiasm and toughness around the ball against the Demons when they held on for another 2-point win last week. Ross, Steven, Billings, Sinclair and Armitage flourished on the outside (the Saints were +32 on Uncontested Possessions), after they broke even with Oliver, Viney, Jones and co. and they will be hoping to follow the same template against this Port Adelaide side. 

Stats That Matter– The Power have won the last 6 meetings
– In his past 4 games against the Saints, Robbie Gray has kicked 10 goals, and averaged 29 disposals and 117 Fantasy Points
– Port are 5-2 ATS at Adelaide Oval this season
– 6 of St. Kilda’s last 8 matches have gone Overs
– Ollie Wines is averaging 115 Fantasy Points per game in his last 4 matches
– The Saints have won just 6 of their 21 away fixtures across 2017 & 2018
– Seb Ross is averaging 28 disposals per game this season

Betting Data

2018 Line: Port Adelaide- 6-8; St. Kilda- 5-9

2018 Over-Under: Port Adelaide- 5-9; St. Kilda- 6-8

What To Expect

The Wolf is steering clear of the huge line given to the Power, especially after the performances the Saints have pulled out over the past fortnight. They do have a terrible record at Adelaide Oval, but it is too hard to dive into Port at the price. Instead, after forecasting 167 points for this game, the Wolf is looking to the Overs markets for a dry Adelaide twilight- with both clubs trending towards Overs in the past month. 156 looks to be something both of these sides can reach, with defences that are prone to leaking a few too.

How It’s Shaping UpPort Adelaide by 23

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Total Points OVER 156.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: TBC
Player Prop: Powell-Pepper 8+ Tackles/Wingard 25+ Disposals ($2.48)
First Goalscorer: Charlie Dixon