Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors Friday, July 6, 7:55pm Panthers Stadium, Penrith
The Panthers have suffered back-to-back losses and will face a tough task against the Warriors despite their strong recent record against them. They’ll be missing NSW Origin trio – James Maloney, Nathan Cleary and Tyrone Peachey. Meanwhile, the Warriors suffered a double blow in the loss to the Sharks last week, with Tohu Harris and Bunty Afoa set to spend some time on the sidelines due to injury.
Recent FormPenrith have fallen to fourth following back-to-back losses to the Roosters and Sea Eagles, losing two in a row for the first time this year. The Panthers rank fourth defensively (16ppg) and fifth in scoring (21.1ppg). The Panthers have been held to 10 or fewer in their last two. New Zealand are fifth on the ladder with a 10-5 record. The Warriors are 5-1 in Australia this year though have won just one of their last six against teams inside the Top 8. New Zealand rank sixth in scoring (20.3ppg) and eighth in defence (18.8ppg).
Stats That Matter– Penrith are 9-6 ATS with an 8-7 over number while New Zealand are 10-5 ATS with a 10-5 under record. – Penrith have won 8 of their last 10 against New Zealand including four straight wins of eight or more at Penrith Stadium. – Six of the last nine meetings have tallied an incredibly high 48 points or more. – The Panthers are 23-16 ATS with a 24-15 under record at home. – As an underdog at the ground Penrith are 8-3 ATS with a 7-4 under record while they are 15-8 ATS with a 14-9 under record at night. – The under is 11-4 when the Panthers are an underdog of less than a converted try at night. – The Warriors have covered 6 of their last 7 away from Mt Smart. – The under is 10-3 when the Warriors are away from Mt Smart after scoring 15 or fewer while they are 11-16 ATS in said situation since 2015 off a loss. – The Warriors have covered just seven of 18 as a favourite.
Final ThoughtsIt’s hard to ignore the Panthers recent record against the Warriors, but that’s exactly what The Wolf is doing here. It’s impossible to back the Panthers without their influential halves duo of Maloney and Cleary, while they lose one of their best strike weapons in Peachey. Despite the loss of Harris for the Warriors, they have plenty of strike power in their spine through the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Blake Green, Shaun Johnson and Issac Luke, and should be able to put plenty of points on Anthony Griffin’s men. The Warriors were also very unlucky to lose to the Sharks last week, while the Panthers were embarrassed by the struggling Sea Eagles. Warriors 13+.
How It Shapes UpNew Zealand by 16
Recommended Bets Best: New Zealand ($1.62) Value: New Zealand 13+ ($3.25) First Tryscorer: Simon Mannering