It’s the second Grand Final re-match this year, but this time the Crows will be returning to the scene of the crime and looking to erase the demons when they take on the Tigers at the MCG on Friday night. Adelaide breathed some life into their season last round when they defeated an injury-depleted Eagles side but they will find the going much tougher against a Richmond side that has not lost at the ‘G since Round 13, 2017- when Sydney defeated them by 9 points. The Crows were comprehensively beaten in their return to the ‘G in Round 13, when Hawthorn completely dismantled their structures on the way to a 56-point win- and the stingy Richmond defence will be even harder to break down for a Crows side that is still lacking some cohesion after all its injury dramas. Will the Crows wilt under the pressure of the Tigers at the MCG again?
Richmond (WWLWW) – It’s hard to know what to say about Richmond’s form without repeating what has been said during 2018 over and over and over again! Their only stumbling blocks have been away from home, but their past two games (both at the ‘G) have followed a similar script, with wins over Top 4 aspirants Geelong and Sydney. On both situations they found themselves in an arm wrestle for three quarters of the game before pulling away in the final term thanks to superior running power and the ability to maintain their frenetic pressure, forcing turnovers and taking full advantage. Hard to fathom this time last year they were getting absolutely belted by St. Kilda! Adelaide (LLLLW) – Following 4 horrendous losses in a row, skipper Taylor Walker dragged his side over the line against the Eagles last week with 22 disposals, 10 marks (4 contested) and 3 goals, 4 behinds- much of that coming in the final term. In a game they were expected to win easily against an injury depleted West Coast, the lack of cohesion going forward was once again telling, before Tex took the game by the scruff of the neck and let his footy do the talking (finally). With injuries mounting and discontent growing, it looked like the season was dead but this type of win could give the Crows just the momentum they need for a run towards September action.
Stats That Matter– The Crows have won 4 of the last 5 clashes – Richmond have won 16 consecutive games at the MCG – Rory Laird had 42 disposals and 141 Fantasy Points in their Round 2 encounter – The Tigers have won 11 of 14 fourth quarters this year (+171 points) – Taylor Walker has kicked 14 goals in his last 4 games against Richmond – Adelaide are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 matches – Over/Unders are 4-2 in Richmond home games – Kane Lambert has had the most disposals for the Tigers in their past 3 games
2018 Line: Richmond- 8-6; Adelaide- 5-9
2018 Over-Under: Richmond- 8-6; Adelaide- 6-8
What To Expect
Friday night footy doesn’t get much better than a Grand Final re-match…..or does it? At their current state, the Crows won’t be close to the Tigers at the end of the game- but Wolf is expecting them to move the ball much better than they did in their last game at the ‘G against the Hawks. They might be close in the first half, with the Adelaide engine room looking a bit more cohesive and potent than weeks gone by, but the Tigers will do what they always do and pull away late when their pressure because too much for a top-heavy Crows defence.
How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 28
Best Bet: Richmond -8.5 Fourth Quarter Line ($1.87) Value Bet: Richmond -15.5 & Total Points OVER 179.5 ($4.10) Player Prop: Rory Laird 35+ Disposals ($3.30) First Goalscorer: Josh Caddy