Spain v Russia: Back Isco to help La Roja to tight win over hosts

Spain v Russia
Sunday June 31 15:00
TV: live on ITV1

Knockout football nous could be crucial

If Spanish fans are somewhat concerned with the performances and results of their team so far, they should be reminded that it could be worse. They could be Germany.

It's a cliché of major tournaments to say that it's not how you get through the Group stages that matters but only that you do get through. But it's true.

But Spain will have to improve if they want to stick around in Russia. Clean sheets were an integral part of their remarkable success between 2008 and 2012 but this time round they've already conceded five goals in three matches. Being on the wrong side of a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick is one thing but conceding two against Morocco is less excusable.

Still, the knockout stages could be where Spain's winning instincts come into play. It certainly doesn't do their chances any harm that the likes of Sergio Ramos, Isco and Dani Carvajal were part of the Real Madrid side that won three Champions Leagues in a row.

An enigma called Russia

One thing is for sure: disaster has already been averted. There were fears that Russia might not even make it this far after a series of poor results in friendlies and a squad that lacked any real star quality at all.

But it's a little hard to know what to make of them. Saudi Arabia are alongside Panama the weakest team in the tournament and Egypt pretty much proved to be what many thought: a bit of a one-man team with Mo Salah's injury resulting in them becoming a bit of a 'half-man team.'

The waters were further muddied by the fact that they had Igor Smolnikov sent off after just 36 minutes when playing their first proper test against Uruguay. So we'll never know how they would have fared if he hadn't taken an early bath.

The general feeling is that they're a bit better than we thought, but it will take a monumental effort from them to pass their next test.

Stats don't make good reading for Russia

Feel free to choose your favourite Opta stat that suggests Russia have no chance. They've never beaten Spain in six attempts since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Spain have scored ten goals against them over the last three games in which they played them. Finally: this is Russia's first match in the knockout stages of the World Cup since they've been playing as Russia. This is hardly familiar territory for them.

But 8/13 isn't a price to get excited about. If you're going with the view that the favouriteswill show their class and make use of their experience there's a better bet than the straight win.

It's 29/10 this one goes to extra-time and 11/2 the tournament sees yet another big upsetwith Russia winning in normal time.

Narrow Spain win the way forward

A better option, if you're siding with Spain, is to back them to win by exactly one goal. They're not set up to play make-or-break-football like, say, Belgium and showed against Iran they're happy to do the bare minimum as long as they win.

Fair to say that 1-0 is a very lively runner here at 5/1 but, given Russia scored so freely in their first two games, so is 2-1 which is a considerably bigger 15/2.

Cover these options (plus a few more unlikely others) by going with Spain to win by one goalat 9/4 on the winning margin market.

Isco in fine form

Those who saw Isco score against Morocco shouldn't have been surprised. He has 10 goals from his last 15 appearances for Spain and has contributed a further two assists as Opta tell us. But it's his goalscoring abilities we're interested in. He's 23/10 to get one here and given Spain have always had a tendency to have attacking midfielders pop up in and around the box in dangerous positions, he'll certainly be a contender here. He's worth a punt at that price.

Diego Costa may have peaked too soon. He had a brilliant game, contributing with two goals, against Portugal and scored again against Iran. But he looked a little frustrated against Morocco and is a tad short at 5/4.

We flagged up Sergio Ramos ahead of the last game as a potential scorer and 5/1 is worth a second look here again.

Russia's top scorer is Denis Cheryshev with three. 9/2 looks a decent enough price if you think Spain will carry on struggling to keep clean sheets.

Key Opta Stats for Spain v Russia

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia have never beaten Spain (D2 L4). Their last encounter ended 3-3 in a friendly back in November 2017.
Spain have scored 10 goals in their last three games against Russia (7 in two games at Euro 2008, 3 in a friendly in November 2017).

Spain are unbeaten in their last 23 games (W15 D8), the longest current run amongst the 32 teams at the 2018 World Cup. Their last defeat came two years ago against Italy in the round of 16 of the European Championships (0-2, June 2016).

Since (and including) the 2006 World Cup, Spain have dominated possession in 32 of their 33 games at major tournaments (World Cup + Euro). The only exception was in the Euro 2008 final against Germany where they had 46% of the ball.

This is Russia’s first ever World Cup knockout match since the breakup of the Soviet Union – at major tournaments, they’ve only played in the knockout stages once, reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2008 when they were eliminated by Spain.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia have kept only two clean sheets in their 12 games at the World Cup. Meanwhile, Spain have failed to find the net only once in their last 12 matches in the competition (v Chile, June 2014).

Russia had just three shots in their last match against Uruguay, the fewest by a host nation in a World Cup match since USA against Brazil in 1994 (3). Russia also both won a match by five goals (5-0 v Saudi Arabia) and lost one by three goals (0-3 v Uruguay), the first time that had happened by such margins in a World Cup group stage since 1982, when Hungary won 10-1 against El Salvador but lost 4-1 against Argentina.

Russia scored eight goals in the group stages despite posting an Expected Goals total of 3.06. This means that they would have been expected to score around three goals based on the quality of their chances.

If he plays, this will be Andres Iniesta’s 30th game at major tournaments (World Cup + Euro), becoming the third Spanish player to reach that tally after Iker Casillas and Sergio Ramos. He hasn’t converted any of his last 32 shots at the World Cup/Euro, his last goal dating back to the 2010 final against the Netherlands.

Isco has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 15 international matches for Spain (10 goals, 2 assists).

Fyodor Smolov scored two goals against Spain in their encounter last November (3-3), the only game in which he’s found the net more than once for Russia. He’s yet to attempt a single shot in 111 minutes of action at this World Cup.