Serie A: Over-rated Milan are one to oppose

Bologna v Sampdoria
Saturday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

There's a great opportunity for profit at the Renato Dall'Ara at the weekend, as Bologna look to build on their dramatic victory in Verona last week. Roberto Donadoni's team looked dead and buried, but somehow found a way to win, and they face a Sampdoria team fresh from a fantastic victory against Juventus that was the story of last weekend.

Both teams have been among the goals in recent weeks, and yet we can back Over 2.5 Goals at even money, which seems like an aberration. They both carry a big attacking threat, neither can defend convincingly, and six of Samp's last seven games have gone Over 3.5 Goals. They have, for betting purposes, become the new Torino.

Both of Bologna's last two games have finished 3-2, and if Samp want a shoot-out I think that Donadoni's men will join in. Bologna's Mattia Destro has a good record against Samp, and I think that they'll score, but they've conceded in every Serie A home game since April and look vulnerable in this one.

Samp make some appeal at 2.80, and I won't put you off backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2.00 if you'd like some insurance, but I'll be taking the monstrous 3.60 that there are at least four goals in this game.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Bologna v Sampdoria @ 3.60

Milan v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

Milan look a little short to me to beat Torino at San Siro on Sunday afternoon, and given that they haven't scored in their last three Serie A home games, it's hard to be too confident that Vincenzo Montella's side will justify that price.

I appreciate that Torino aren't in great form either, but they proved at the start of this season what a good team they're capable of being, and two weeks ago they came here and were unlucky not to beat Inter, a far superior side to Sunday's opposition.

Too much has happened too quickly at Milan, and Montella would seem to be hanging on by a thread, maybe helped by the latest allegations of financial impropriety which are flying around the club, which can't be helping the general atmosphere.

Milan may end up going on the kind of run that their summer investment deserves and that could even take them into a battle for a European place, but the problem at the moment is quite simple: they're not playing well enough, and Torino are just the kind of underrated, under the radar team, that could come to San Siro and cause a surprise.

Recommended Bet
Lay Milan against Torino @ 1.70

Lazio v Fiorentina
Sunday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

The last three Serie A meetings between these two sides have averaged 4.7 goals per game, and there's no real reason to think that this won't be another high-scoring match.

Lazio have scored at least three goals in six of their last 10 home games, and it would be a big surprise if they don't beat a Fiorentina team which is in a bad run of form at the moment, having lost to Crotone and Roma, and then drawn last time against SPAL.

La Viola need to offer enough going forward to justify a bet on Over 3.5 Goals, and I think that Stefano Pioli's developing team have enough about them to do that. They've scored in every game that they've played this season, barring their trips to Juve and Inter, and Lazio have conceded in all bar three of their League matches this campaign.

The Lazio way under Simone Inzaghi seems to be to try and outscore teams, and I can see that continuing until they become realistic title contenders and the pressure cranks up, or until Ciro Immobile gets injured. For now, their games are full of goals, and we can profit again.

Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals in Lazio v Fiorentina @ 2.40