Sevilla v Liverpool
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2

Knockout stages beckon for hosts
Things were looking a little bleak for Sevilla month or so ago, when they were thrashed by Spartak Moscow (5-1) and Valencia (4-0) in consecutive games. But they appear to have turned a corner since: three home games have yielded three wins, while they were unlucky not to claim anything from their trip to the Camp Nou before the international break.

Fifth in La Liga is probably about par, and while former Celta Vigo boss Eduardo Berizzo is clearly still finding his feet in his new job, Sevilla should be hopeful of making it out of Champions League Group E, with Spartak's failure to beat Maribor first up surely likely to come back to haunt them. Any kind of positive result on Tuesday would put them in the driving seat.

Berizzo rotated a touch at the weekend with this game in mind, so we can probably expect playmaker Éver Banega and centre-back Simon Kjær - a former Liverpool target - to return to the starting XI. In attack, it's a coin toss between Wissam Ben Yedder and Luís Muriel.


Reds coming into their own
After a galling defeat, you want to see a reaction from your players. So Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp must be delighted with what he has witnessed since that 4-1 reversal against Tottenham in late October: his side have played four games and recorded four three-goal wins.

Liverpool's attacking potency has been evident all season, even if Mohamed Salah has taken things to a new level with his displays this month. But the real improvement has come at the back: three home games have yielded three clean sheets, with the only blot on the Reds' copybook a sublime piece of individual skill from Manuel Lanzini. Dejan Lovren and Alberto Moreno have come in for plenty of stick in the past, but they're a force to be reckoned with at the moment.

Klopp should name a similar side to the one that cruised past Southampton on Saturday. After a brief 4-4-2 experiment against West Ham, it was back to the usual 4-3-3, with Salah and Sadio Mané given licence to roam around of Roberto Firmino. The availability of the first-choice midfield trio (Jordan Henderson, Georginio Wijnaldum and Philippe Coutinho) is also a big boost after recent fitness issues.


Liverpool the more likely winners
Sevilla ran Liverpool close at Anfield (2-2) and have been impressive at the Sánchez Pizjuán all season: they have won seven of nine and drawn the other two. Odds of 2.86 on the home win may tempt, then, but it's worth noting that their visitors thus far haven't been out of the top drawer. They've only had one home game against a side currently in the top half of La Liga (Leganés, 2-1) and even then, only Eibar, Maribor and Málaga have been beaten by more than one goal.

Liverpool should trouble a defence whose only clean sheet since September came against Cartagena in the Copa del Rey, and will be motivated by the possibility of sealing first place in the group with a game to spare. 2.62 is the outright price, although given Sevilla have won six of their last seven home Champions League games, Draw No Bet might be the more sensible option at 1.90.


Goals on the cards
With Liverpool's attack so potent and Sevilla no slouches themselves, it's no great surprise that over 2.5 goals is as short as 1.66. That's too short to get behind, but over 3.5 might be worth consideration at 2.56, with an open game likely in store.


Salah the danger man
Away from the over/under lines, there's better value to be had by backing Salah to find the net. The Egyptian has four goals in four Champions League games for Liverpool so far, including one against Sevilla at Anfield, and will be in buoyant mood after a pair of stunning Premier League displays either side of the international break.

Salah has netted ten goals in his last eight games for club and country, and against a defence that conceded 24 shots against Liverpool on matchday one, looks value at [2.75] to find the net.


Recommended Bets

Back Mohamed Salah to score at [2.75]
Back Liverpool draw no bet at 1.90


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