Bundesliga Betting: Demoralised Dortmund to fail derby test

Borussia Dortmund v Schalke
Saturday November 25, 14:30

In the last few seasons, Schalke fans have watched on enviously as their old Ruhr rivals Borussia Dortmund have competed at the top end of German and European football. BVB have won Bundesliga titles, German Cups and contested a Champions League final in the last decade, while Schalke's only trophy in that period was the 2011 German Cup.

That makes it all the more sweet for fans of the Royal Blues that they sit three places above Dortmund going into this weekend's Revierderby. 32-year-old coach Domenico Tedesco has implemented a precise passing game which is yielding great results. To his credit, he has got some big personnel calls spot-on - making Max Meyer into a combative, deep-lying playmaker was an inspired move, and Tedesco is getting way more out of maverick winger Yevhen Konoplyanka than his predecessor Markus Weinzierl ever did.

Schalke have won four of their last five Bundesliga matches, and they have taken maximum points from three of their last four away games. Only Bayern have a better defensive record this term, with Schalke having leaked just ten goals in 12 Bundesliga outings.

Schalke ground out a goalless draw at Signal Iduna Park against Dortmund last season, and they will fancy their chances of getting an even better result this season. Dortmund have taken just a point from their last five league games, their confidence has been shattered,and they lost at home yet again on Tuesday. Despite taking the lead against Spurs in the Champions League, BVB couldn't manage a whole game without making an error, and having gifted Harry Kane a leveller, they then collapsed to a 2-1 defeat.

Even embattled BVB coach Peter Bosz admits he might be sacked if his team lose the Revierderby, but despite the gravity of the situation, he is unlikely to abandon either his beloved 4-3-3 formation, or the high defensive line which has caused so much uncertainty in the ranks. Dortmund have conceded 22 goals in their last 11 matches in all competitions, partially due to systemic failures, and partially due to a catalogue of injury problems in defensive positions.

I find it bizarre that Dortmund are 1.80 favourites here given their current form, Schalke's rise and the huge pressure that comes with one of the fiercest rivalries in German football. I'm more than happy to lay the hosts.

Recommended Bet
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.80

Freiburg v Mainz
Saturday November 25, 14:30

Freiburg are deep in relegation trouble, and given the strength of their squad, that's hardly a surprise. Coach Christian Streich has been turning water into wine for years in the Black Forest, and if he is to pull off another miracle, it'll be largely based on the team's home form.

Freiburg can't buy a win on their travels, but their performances have been much better at the Schwarzwald Stadion. They have only lost once at home this term, and that was a pretty undeserved reverse against Schalke, a game in which Streich's men hit the woodwork three times.

Mainz are also dependent on their home form. There are signs that homegrown coach Sandro Schwarz is getting his ideas across to his players, but Die Nullfunfer were rather fortunate to beat Koln last weekend, and their away form is poor.

Schwarz's side have picked up just two points on their travels, and if you stretch back into last season, Mainz have won just one of their last 19 Bundesliga road matches. On that basis, I'll back Freiburg with a bit of insurance.

Recommended Bet
Back Freiburg Draw No Bet at 2.00

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayern Munich
Saturday November 25, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 2

Bayern's decision to remove Carlo Ancelotti from his post and replace him with Jupp Heynckes has paid off spectacularly. The champions are six points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, they have made the last 16 of the Champions League, and they came through a tricky tie against RB Leipzig in the German Cup. They have won all nine of their matches since Heynckes returned to the fold.

On Saturday evening they face what could be a tough test against a Borussia Monchengladbach that veers between the sublime and the ridiculous. A team that lost 6-1 to Borussia Dortmund and 5-1 to Bayer Leverkusen is still fourth in the standings, and the Foals have won four of their last five matches in all competitions.

When Gladbach click, they are a joy to watch. For example, their Brazilian striker Raffael scored two superb goals in last Saturday's 4-2 win at Hertha Berlin, the first of which saw an elastic bit of control followed by an absolute thunderbolt of a shot. Thorgan Hazard, Lars Stindl and Vincenzo Grifo are a sparkling supporting cast for Raffael.

It may seem a bit crazy to oppose a Bayern team that just keeps on winning, but that's exactly what I'll do. Gladbach have picked up some good results against Bayern in recent seasons (they have only lost two of the clubs' last six Bundesliga meetings), and Bayern have lost a couple of key players to injury. Arjen Robben and Thiago were both laid low during the rather scrappy 2-1 Champions League win at Anderlecht in midweek, and David Alaba isn't fully fit because of a back injury.

It's a bit of a swing for the fences, but if Gladbach hit top gear, they can get a result here.

Recommended Bet
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.55