NRL Preview Round 17: Bulldogs v Raiders

Canterbury Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders
Saturday, July 7, 7:35pm
Belmore Sports Ground, Sydney

The Bulldogs recorded a rare win when they defeated the Knights 36-16 in Newcastle last week, and will be looking to build on that performance when they host the Raiders at their spiritual home in Belmore Sports Ground. Meanwhile, the Raiders will need to recover quickly here, after blowing yet another lead (16-0) in their 26-22 loss to the Broncos in Brisbane. The Green Machine now find themselves six-points outside of the Top 8, making this a must-win clash if they have ambitions of playing finals football. The Bulldogs will be missing David Klemmer on NSW Origin duty, while Raiders enforcer Josh Papalii has been named to start in the engine room for Queensland in State of Origin Game 3.

Recent FormCanterbury enter this off their most entertaining win of the season, a 36-16 win away to Newcastle. The Bulldogs moved up to 14th on the ladder with the win. The Bulldogs have the ninth best defence (20.3ppg) but rank 14th in scoring with just 16.3ppg. Canterbury have won just two of their last nine. Canberra come off another blown lead, losing 26-22 to Brisbane after going into halftime up 16-0. The Raiders have won just two of their last six. The Raiders rank third in scoring with 23.2ppg but they rank a lowly 11th in defence conceding 21.5ppg.

Stats That Matter– Canterbury are 7-8 ATS with a 9-6 under record while Canberra are 6-9 ATS with an 8-7 over record, going over in their last three.
– Canberra have won three of the last four meetings including a win at Belmore.
– Four of the last six matches have failed to surpass 36 total points.
– Home underdogs of 6.5 or more off a win are 24-15 ATS since 2013.
– The Bulldogs are a perfect 8-0 ATS when an underdog of 6.5 or more at ANZ/Belmore (11-4 ATS getting 4 or more).
– The under is 15-8 when the Bulldogs are a home underdog.
– Canterbury are 4-1 ATS after scoring 30 or more points.
– Canterbury are 8-15 ATS at home off a win.
– Canberra are 28-16 ATS away from Canberra Stadium with a 28-16 over record but that falls to 9-7 ATS with an 11-5 over record as a favourite.
– Away favourites of 6 or more off a loss are 10-19 ATS with a 19-10 under record since 2015 (18-32 ATS, 30-20 under when a road favourite of 4 or more).
– The Raiders are 6-9 ATS as a favourite off a one-score loss.

Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is sticking with the Raiders despite yet another capitulation last week. They’ve won three of the past four against the Bulldogs, and the Bulldogs will be without their best forward in David Klemmer. Canterbury is already light in their forwards, with Raymond Faitala-Mariner out for the season and could face a tough task against the big Raiders pack which has enough depth to cover for the loss of Josh Papalii. It’s do-or-die for the Raiders and they should do enough to get the job done against a very inexperienced Bulldogs side.

How It Shapes UpCanberra by 6

Recommended Bets
Best: Canberra 1-12 ($3)
Value: HT/NT Margin Double: Canberra 9+/Canberra 1-12 ($9)
First Tryscorer: Joseph Leilua