AFL Preview Round 18: Cats v Demons

Geelong v Melbourne
Sat 7:25pm at GMHBA Stadium

It’s the game of the round down in Geelong on Saturday night with the 8th-placed Cats taking on the 6th-placed Demons in a crucial clash at GMHBA Stadium. They played an absolute thriller in Round 1, and despite their fluctuating fortunes throughout the year, they both come into this game with some reasonable form behind them. Turn the phone on silent, get the popcorn ready and park yourself on the couch with your William Hill app- this is shaping up to be a blockbuster.

Form

Geelong (WLLWL) – It’s hard to say Geelong took a step back after their impressive win over Sydney at the SCG a fortnight ago; because the Adelaide side they played was a Grand Finalist last year, and certainly not the same one a few clubs have been beating up this year! Nonetheless, the Cats have a great record in ‘Rads and that match was a crucial one, not only for their Top 4 hopes, but Finals in general- given how close the competition is. Danger, who has had a very quiet year by his standards, was phenomenal against his old side, but it was a case of history repeating itself- with the bottom end of the list contributing nothing and leaving the load on too few.

Melbourne (LLLWW) – One might say the Dees have well and truly pulled themselves out of their form slump, but on paper all we can see is that they have beaten sides placed 13th and 14th respectively. Their lack of leg speed has been exposed by a few sides recently, but we all know finals footy is built on winning contested ball; so it is hard to know how much to read into that. Additionally, the Demons have the best inside player in the competition in Clayton Oliver; the flame-haired boy with the magic hands and the fact he has added an ability to affect the game by foot and on the scoreboard has lifted their midfield too. He has been in outstanding form, and will be vitally important against the experienced Cats engine room.

Stats That Matter– Geelong have won 13 of the past 15 meetings– The Dees are averaging 105 points per game this season (#1 in comp)– Joel Selwood averages 30 disposals and 118 Fantasy Points per game against Melbourne– Melbourne are 7-3 on the Over/Under in their last 10 matches– Max Gawn had 138 Fantasy Points in their Round 1 clash– All 5 of the Cats games at GMHBA Stadium this year have gone Unders– Clayton Oliver is averaging 114 Fantasy Points per game since Round 10– Melbourne are 8-3 ATS in their last 10 matches

Betting Data

2018 Line: Geelong- 8-8; Melbourne- 10-62018 Over-Under: Geelong- 5-11; Melbourne- 9-7

What To Expect

Wow- this game is gonna be a cracker! Both sides are sitting precariously in the 8, and need any win they can get. Their Round 1 game earlier in the year, where Gawn absolutely shanked one to lose after the siren , was a hotly contested affair and while Geelong have the edge at home, Wolfie likes the price for both sides to keep it close.

How It’s Shaping UpGeelong by 4

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Either Team Under 15.5 ($2.70)
Value Bet: Joel Selwood 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.75)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 8+ Tackles ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Daniel Menzel ($11.00)