AFL Preview Round 18: Blues v Hawks

Carlton v Hawthorn
Sun 1:10pm at Etihad Stadium

Sunday afternoon footy kicks off with a important match for the Hawks against the embarrassing green shoots of Carlton. Hawthorn were humbled by a hungrier Lions outfit last weekend, and if they are any hope of finals action they need to win this game, and win it WELL.

Form

Carlton (LLLLL) – Every week it seems like we say it can’t get any worse for Carlton, but it does. St. Kilda has a younger list on average than the Blues, but they absolutely belted them by 64 points, and had they kicked straight it would have been by significantly more. It’s now been 49 consecutive games where they have scored below 100, and that is inexcusable given their defence has also gone backwards (they are conceded 102 points per game on average in 2018). Can someone give Patrick Cripps a hand? The poor boy is beaten from pillar to post every game and still manages 35 or so disposals.

Hawthorn (WWLWL) – It’s finally official, the Hawks cannot challenge for the flag. Once again, the were completely stunned by the enthusiastic Lions and had no answers. It’s clear the midfield consists solely of Mitchell and O’Meara, because as serviceable as Shiels, Howe etc can be, they just can’t impact games in the manner they need to, to be a finals side. The forward line was ineffective (like they have been on several occasions this year), failing to capitalise despite having more inside 50’s than the Lions. The fact Sicily is now out for the rest of the year means Gunston will be going back and he is such a crucial cog in that forward 50.

Stats That Matter

– Hawthorn have won 14 of the past 15 meetings

– The Blues are conceding 101 points per game in 2018

– Jack Gunston averages 2.8 goals and 104 Fantasy Points per game against Carlton

– Carlton are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at Etihad

– Tom Mitchell is averaging 38 disposals and 130 Fantasy Points per game in his last five matches, and had 44 touches & 143 Fantasy Points in his last game against Carlton

– The Blues have won just 3 first halves this season (-355 points; percentage of 57%)

– Jarryd Roughead averages 3.2 goals per game against Carlton (38 in 12 meetings)

Betting Data

2018 Line: Carlton- 8-8; Hawthorn- 9-7

2018 Over-Under: Carlton- 9-7; Hawthorn- 6-10

What To Expect

Move along, nothing to see here folks! Hawthorn were jumped by the Lions again, but that won’t be happening against the Blues. Clarko will no doubt have punched a few walls over the week, and will have his side primed to get redemption against one of the poorest sides we’ve seen over the last 20 years. Tommy Mitchell will run riot.

How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 22

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Tom Mitchell Most Match Disposals & Hawthorn WIN ($1.67)
Value Bet: Kade Simpson 30+ Disposals ($2.90)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust