AFL Preview Round 18: Lions v Crows

Brisbane v Adelaide
Sat 7:25pm at The Gabba

Two of the most exciting sides to watch will be clashing at the Gabba on a beautiful QLD night, when the Crows look to keep their finals hopes alive against the Lions. Brisbane managed to upset the Hawks for the second time this year down in Launceston last week, and they will be full of confidence and ready to back in their attacking game plan. That won’t be easy against a Crows side that is building nicely, however, and have everything on the line.

Form

Brisbane (LLWWW) – 3 in a row! If they manage to win this weekend, they will have had four in a row for the first time since the first 4 rounds in 2010! Apart from the fact they beat Hawthorn in Launie (where they have lost just once in their last 20 games), the Lion cubs played aesthetically pleasing and courageously attacking footy- and a one-paced Hawks midfield simply had no answers. Speaking of aesthetically pleasing, how good is it to watch Cameron Rayner?! The #1 draft pick had 19 disposals and 3 clutch goals against the Hawks- he’s had a few quiet games this year, but the goal sense, swagger and #quadzilla legs are irresistible.

Adelaide (LLWLW) – Whether or not their issues have been self-inflicted, it is clear than when Adelaide have somewhat of a full-strength side, and are at home, they are close to unbeatable. With Brodie Smith playing his first game of footy in close to a year this weekend (in the SANFL), their attacking footy launched from the back-half is about to become even more potent at just the right time. Could they squeak into finals? You certainly wouldn’t want to be playing them at Adelaide Oval either way, they have a lot to prove.

Stats That Matter– Adelaide has won the last 6 meetings– 7 of the Lions last 10 matches have gone Overs– The Crows have won their last 4 clashes at the Gabba by an average of 54 points– Stefan Martin averages 115 Fantasy Points per game against Adelaide– Brisbane have won just two 1st Quarters this season (-174 points)– Taylor Walker has kicked 16 goals in his last 4 games against the Lions– Brisbane averaging 88 points per game at home (compared to 79 away)– Rory Laird is averaging 37 disposals per game since returning from injury

Betting Data

2018 Line: Brisbane- 9-7; Adelaide- 6-102018 Over-Under: Brisbane- 8-8; Adelaide- 7-9

What To Expect

The last time Brisbane won 4 games in a row was the first 4 rounds of 2010 – a year they finished 13th. The Crows will have to prevent that from happening if they are to keep their finals hopes alive. With perfect conditions expected, this game is shaping up to be an absolute shoot-out, with 4 of their last 6 meetings finishing comfortably over 200 points. Adelaide are starting to get back to full strength, and after they put a few goals on the Cats, they’ll be keen to do the same against Brisbane with so much on the line. 

How It’s Shaping UpAdelaide by 21

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Total Points OVER 179.5 ($1.88)
Value Bet: Adelaide 121+ Points ($6.00)
Player Prop: Rory Laird 35+ Disposals ($2.20)
First Goalscorer: Mitch McGovern ($15.00)