AFL Preview Round 18: Saints v Tigers

St Kilda v Richmond
Fri 7:50pm at Etihad Stadium

Round 18 kicks off on Friday night when the Saints look for their fifth win of the year when they take on the Tigers at Etihad. The Saints had a big win over Carlton last week, and have been playing with renewed vigour and pressure over the past month; though the reigning Premiers present a far bigger challenge. No doubt Damien Hardwick and his men will be out to atone for last week’s thrilling loss to the Giants and get their back-to-back campaign back on track.

Form

St. Kilda (LWWLW) – After just 1 win in 12 matches to start the season, the Saints have now won 3 of their last 4- including a huge 64 point win over the hapless Blues last round. Jack Steven has been at his industrious best during that time; while Jack Billings has returned to the form we all knew he was capable- with the former #3 pick doubling his output from earlier in the year (and improving that horrendous inaccuracy!). They certainly aren’t the easy kill for Finals bound sides they were earlier in the year.

Richmond (LWWWL) – They lost an interstate game once again (they are 0/3 this year) but they certainly didn’t lose any admirers against a Giants side that were playing confident, attacking footy in a fierce encounter reminiscent of a Finals game. With the Sherrin constantly ping-ponging between the arcs, it was the lack of composure (namely from a jittery Jason Castanga, who kicked 0.5) that eventually cost Richmond, despite controlling most of the second half.

Stats That Matter

– The Tigers beat the Saints earlier this year by 28 points (Round 10)– St. Kilda are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matches– Richmond have won 13 of 16 fourth quarters this season (+219 points)– Josh Caddy and Jade Gresham both kicked 6 goals in their Round 10 meeting– 7 of the Saints’ last 10 games have gone Overs– Seb Ross is averaging 32 disposals per game in his past 4 against Richmond– The Tigers have won 8 of the past 10 clashes

Betting Data

2018 Line: St. Kilda- 7-9; Richmond- 9-7

2018 Over-Under: St. Kilda- 7-9; Richmond- 8-8

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting this game to follow a familiar script, with the Saints competitive in the first half, before Richmond roll over the top of them with a flurry of late goals. While the big line for St Kilda (+38.5) was tempting, the final quarter line seems a safer bet for a Tigers side that will be pumped to make amends. Might be a few points in this one, but surely Richmond will be far too good.

How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 35

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Final Quarter Line- Richmond -10.5 ($1.87)
Value Bet: St Kilda +39.5 & OVER 179.5 ($4.30)
Player Prop: Jack Steven 30+ Disposals ($2.20)
First Goalscorer: Josh Caddy ($11.00)