Ligue 1 Betting: Low goals count the key to PSG success

For all their attacking might, the title holders from the French capital aren't scoring as many goals as you might imagine, writes James Eastham...

Montpellier vs Amiens (6th vs 16th)
Sat, 19:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video
Amiens suffered a 4-0 home defeat to Strasbourg last weekend and their chronic defensive problems are the primary reason why Montpellier are a sound bet to beat them on Saturday night.
Since being appointed over the summer Amiens manager Luka Elsner has encouraged a progressive and attacking style of football but the team's defensive frailties have been apparent in many of their matches. Amiens have the joint-second-worst defensive record in the division and will struggle to shut out the attack-minded hosts.
In Gaetan Laborde and Andy Delort Montpellier have a high-performing front duo and the pair are ably supported. Florent Mollet is a gifted playmaker and the recent return from injury of ex-Nimes midfielder Teji Savanier has added to Montpellier's arsenal in open play and from dead-ball situations.
Montpellier have an excellent W5-D1-L1 home record and will be confident that they can do enough over the 90 minutes to collect the three points. The hosts are a smart selection at just under evens.
Reims vs Bordeaux (7th vs 4th)
Sat, 19:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport Extra 2 and Betfair Live Video
Bordeaux have made impressive and unexpected progress under manager Paulo Sousa this season, to the point they now appear top-six contenders. They will travel to Reims this weekend quietly confident they can avoid defeat.
Last weekend's 2-1 win over Monaco summed up much that is good about Bordeaux these days: they won despite the absence of two members of their ideal back three, with Mexer and Laurent Koscielny (above) on the sidelines. Bordeaux were below full-strength in other positions, too, yet had the patience and character to come out on top.
Sousa has juggled his squad expertly at times, meaning Bordeaux's performance level has stayed consistent even on the occasions when their starting line-up has suggested a dip might occur. They're unbeaten in five of seven away matches (W3-D2-L2) in Ligue 1 this season.
Reims' home form leaves plenty to be desired (W2-D4-L1). The odds of 2.10 on a home win look too short given the home and away form patterns going into the game, and the general standard of Bordeaux's play in many of their games this season. Laying the hosts at a price around evens is the pick. For more on how to back and how to lay, click here.

Monaco vs PSG (14th vs 1st)
Sun, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video
Fresh from their 2-2 midweek Champions League draw at Real Madrid PSG travel to Monaco on Sunday night looking to consolidate or increase their eight-point lead at the top of Ligue 1. PSG are W11-D0-L3 for the season and look well on course to collect their seventh league title in eight campaigns.
PSG are an understandably short 1.52 to come away from Stade Louis II with all three points. The goals markets provide better betting opportunities, however, and specifically the Under/Over 3.5 Goals market.
It's a surprise to see the Unders/Overs line in this market set at about evens. For all the attacking talent on their books - Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, Mauro Icardi, Angel Di Maria, Edinson Cavani - PSG have been less prolific and involved in fewer high-scoring games than you might imagine.
With 14 matches played PSG have scored 30 goals. At the same stage last season, they had scored 46 goals. At the same stage in 2017-18 they had scored 45 goals. They're winning games, but not by the margins that they have in previous seasons.
Ten of PSG's 14 matches - and six out of seven away games - have featured Under 3.5 Goals. Going unders on this particular market looks the smart bet this weekend.

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