Back Atletico in 13/1 fourfold

Infogol analyst Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

League leaders not slowing

Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Union Berlin got their season up and running after the last international break, picking up three wins in four league games to propel them up the table and clear of the relegation zone, for now.
Their only defeat in that time came away at Bayern Munich, but they have been fortunate in a few of those wins, with performances not representative of the wins they have accumulated.
Based on xG this season, Union rate as the third worst team in the Bundesliga, as defensively they are wide open (1.81 xGA per game), which doesn't bode well coming into this match.
Borussia Mönchengladbach went into the break top of the table, with a four-point lead over RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Freiburg after a fantastic start.
While they haven't been the best team according to expected goals, they aren't far away, ranking third best in the league behind RBL (2nd) and Bayern (1st), but the gap between themselves and 4th best Frankfurt is a big one.
Going forward they have been sensational, averaging 2.18 xGF per game, and based on non-penalty big chances created (31), they are going to be tough to stop here.
This is my battle bet in this weeks Football...Only Bettor pod, mainly due to the value on offer, and the fact that I don't think BMG are getting the respect they deserve in the market.
Gladbach can be backed at 2.14 (46%) on the Exchange, and Infogol calculates a 52% (1.92) chance of them getting the win, so an away win represents good value.

No strikers, no problem for Atleti

Granada vs Atletico Madrid
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Granada's hot start in the league is a distant memory now, as three straight defeats against some of the leagues best (GET, RSO, VAL) has seen the fall down the table.
They still sit eighth, and that is closer to where Infogol suggests they should be (10th), and they continue to find it difficult to create scoring chances, averaging just 1.16 xGF per game.
Defensively they have been ok, but the better teams in the league have had no issues breaching their backline, and there is the belief that Granada are a strong home team having won four out of six, but based on xG, they have been the third worst home team this season.
Atletico Madrid have been surprisingly impressive this season, despite actual results suggesting otherwise, with their underlying process fantastic this season.
I mention on Football...Only Bettor this week that this hasn't always been the case, with Atleti usually over-performing according xG, but this season, they rank as the best team in La Liga.
Their process is very strong, as they boast the third best attacking output (1.86 xGF per game) and unsurprisingly the best defensive process (0.81 xGA per game), so this is a serious title contender.
Atletico are short on options in the striker position though, with Diego Costa out injured along with João Félix, meaning ex-Chelsea striker Alvaro Morata is their main man.
Even so, I really like their chances in Granada. Diego Simeone's side can be backed at 2.00 (50%) on the Exchange, and Infogol thinks they should be priced closer to 1.79 (56%), so another away win is the value play.

Low-scoring game in Brittany

Brest vs Nantes
Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Brest went into the break on the back of successive defeats, going down 1-0 to Amiens (xG: AMI 1.22 - 1.04 BRE) and 2-1 to PSG (xG: BRE 1.25 - 2.97 PSG), leaving them 12th in the table.
They are fortunate to be so high in the table according to xG, ranking as the worst team in the league, and really struggle in attack, averaging just 0.88 xGF per game this season.
The only team that has been worst than Brest this season in terms of xG created, is Nantes.
Nantes season has fallen apart after a hot start, but that is no surprise, as they were winning a lot of matches by a narrow margin, and you get some in your favour, but also against you over the course of the season, which is what we have seen of late.
They have lost their last four matches, scoring in just one of those, but they really are a team that struggle in front of goal, generating a league-low average of 0.85 xGF per game.
I'm expecting this to be a turgid game of football between two teams who have struggled in attack this season, and we calculate a 62% (1.61) chance of BTTS 'no', making the 1.99 (50%) available on the Exchange the obvious value play.

No clean-sheet again for Inter

Torino vs Inter Milan
Saturday, 19:45:00 GMT
In Italy, myself and Andy Brassel think Atalanta are a good bet to beat Juventus this season, but since recording the Football... Only Bettor pod, their price has shortened dramatically, from 3.15 to 2.8, and they are only one more tick away from being favourites for the game.
That value has diminished now, so I'm heading to Turin for title chasing Inter Milan's clash with Torino.
Torino got a big win at Brescia just before the break, and were hugely impressive in running out 4-0 winners, as that was by far their best attacking display of the season so far (xG: BRE 0.53 - 3.53 TOR).
They have struggled so far this season, but that game and performance could be a turning point for Walter Mazzari's side, and they have some tricky players that could cause problems for Inter.
Antonio Conte's Inter side continue to be hot on the heels of Juventus after a come-from-behind win over Verona, another solid performance and deserved win (xG: INT 2.51 - 1.26 VER).
xG wise, they rate as the best team in the league, but while they are creating good chances (1.90 xGF per game), defensively they haven't been solid, failing to keep a clean-sheet in their last seven Serie A games.
All of this points towards goals, and another game in which Inter fail to keep a clean-sheet, with Infogol calculating a 57% (1.75) chance of BTTS.

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