AFL Preview: Tigers v Magpies

Richmond v Collingwood
Thursday 7:21pm
at MCG

This match shapes up as the most even contest of the round.

Form

The Tigers kick started their 2017 season with a thumping win over the mistake riddled Blues. They lead from start to finish and their superstar Dustin Martin was a clear best on ground finishing with 33 disposals and 4 goals.

Collingwood showed plenty of fight against the premiership-winning Bulldogs. The Pies finished the night with 26 scoring shots, which was actually one more than the Dogs. Even the toughest of Pies fans would have been happy with their effort and endeavor despite the loss.

Stats That Matter

– The team that started favourite has covered 3 of the last 4 spreads.
– Their last two meetings at night have gone under the game total.
– Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 against Collingwood at +66% POT.
– Richmond are 3 from 4 ATS against Collingwood

Betting Data

2017 Line: Richmond 1-0, Collingwood 1-0
2017 Over/Under: Richmond 1-0, Collingwood 1-0

What To Expect

The numbers suggest this one will go right down to the wire, with neither side having a definitive edge over the other. Wolfy is finding it very difficult to lean the punters into either team, as both were impressive in their round one fixture. Three of the last four matches have finished by a margin of 15 points or less, including a 1 point margin in favour of Collingwood in the round 2 fixture last season. The Wolf can see this one going down to the wire but a more desperate Pies outfit will just sneak over the line.

How It’s Shaping Up

Collingwood by 6

Recommended Bet

Triple Margin – Either Team Under 15.5 ($2.75)

Player Markets

If you thought Dusty was good last week, you better take a seat when reading these numbers. In his last 4 matches against the Pies, Dusty averages a huge 30.5 disposals and 114.8 fantasy points per game. In fact, the top 5 fantasy averages over the last 4 meetings between the two all belong to Tigers players. Shaun Grigg (115.3), Martin, (114.8), Brandon Ellis (113.5), Bachar Houli (109.8) and Trent Cotchin (99.3). Anyway, enough about the Tigers as a few of the Pies boys put up Dusty like numbers last week. 4 Pies collected 33 or more disposals against the Dogs and these 4 players all scored more than 123 fantasy points. This one shapes as a points feast and the Wolf will be sticking with the man in form Dustin Martin to go big again.

Recommended Bet

Dustin Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.20)