European Football Tips: Value wagers for this weekend's fixtures

Germany Bundesliga
Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim
Friday, March 31, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 2.92 Draw 3.35 Away 2.72
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 2.98 Draw 3.40 Away 2.78
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.64 Draw 3.45 Away 3.05

Hertha Berlin scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.1 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.27. Offering now at 0.9 of FV, punters might consider laying Hoffenheim. Berlin leads the table in home performance and has done this with a goal difference of 21-6. Should be favored at home.

Recommendation: Back Hertha Berlin above fair value

Portugal Portuguese-Liga
Benfica v FC Porto
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 2.58 Draw 3.05 Away 3.05
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 2.82 Draw 3.30 Away 3.30
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.42 Draw 3.30 Away 3.55

Benfica scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.07 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.13. Offering now at 0.86 of FV, punters might consider laying FC Porto. Match of the week as Portugal's top team battle for table supremacy. Tough to separate these two but Benfica is clearly above fair value.

Recommendation: Back Benfica above fair value

England Championship
Brighton v Blackburn
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 1.63 Draw 4.10 Away 6.20
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 1.66 Draw 4.20 Away 7.00
Fair Value Odds - Home 1.59 Draw 4.40 Away 7.00

Brighton scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.03 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.08. Offering now at 0.88 of FV, punters might consider laying Blackburn. Only two home losses this season for Brighton. They are battling for top of table with Newcastle.

Recommendation: Back Brighton above fair value

England Premier-League
Hull City v West Ham
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 2.56 Draw 3.45 Away 3.05
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.74 Draw 3.45 Away 2.90

West Ham scores a 10 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.04 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.15. West Ham has playing to poor form recently and they certainly miss the Boleyn grounds. They move up on the road particularly against a vulnerable side like Hull.

Recommendation: Back West Ham above fair value

England Premier-League
Southampton v Bournemouth
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 1.67 Draw 4.10 Away 6.00
Fair Value Odds - Home 1.61 Draw 4.50 Away 6.60

Southampton scores a 7 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.04 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.07. Bournemouth has been outscored 31-16 on road. Take Saints here.

Recommendation: Back Southampton above fair value

Netherlands Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam v PSV
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 8.40 Draw 5.30 Away 1.40
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 10.50 Draw 5.90 Away 1.41
Fair Value Odds - Home 10.50 Draw 5.80 Away 1.37

PSV scores a 6 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.02 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.05. Offering now at 0.82 of FV, punters might consider laying Sparta Rotterdam. PSV should have no trouble with the Red and White.

Recommendation: Back PSV above fair value 

England Premier-League
Watford v Sunderland
Saturday, April 01, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 1.89 Draw 3.65 Away 4.80
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.02 Draw 3.60 Away 4.40

Sunderland scores a 6 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.08 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.47. Still capable of avoiding relegation, Sunderland is desperate for points. Nice price.

Recommendation: Back Sunderland above fair value

Germany Bundesliga
Ingolstadt v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Sunday, April 02, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 2.18 Draw 3.45 Away 3.65
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 2.28 Draw 3.65 Away 3.95
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.50 Draw 3.35 Away 3.30

1. FSV Mainz 05 scores a 6 out of 10 on our value scoring system and are trading near 1.09 % of fair value. Since the Betfair open, the bid has drifted 0.4. Offering now at 0.87 of FV, punters might consider laying Ingolstadt. Mainz is a better squad and Inglostadt, likely to be relegated, does not play well at home.

Recommendation: Back 1. FSV Mainz 05 above fair value


Italy Serie-A
Napoli v Juventus
Sunday, April 02, 2017

Betfair Back Odds - Home 2.62 Draw 3.35 Away 2.98
Betfair Lay Odds - Home 2.68 Draw 3.45 Away 3.10
Fair Value Odds - Home 2.96 Draw 3.45 Away 2.70