Southampton v Bournemouth 
Saturday April 1 17:30
Live on BT Sport

Southampton

Southampton have been remarkably inconsistent of late. And that's not something you'd normally say about this club.
But since the turn of the year results have included: an excellent defeat of Liverpool at Anfield to make the EFL Cup final, a 4-0 victory at Sunderland and a topsy-turvy 4-3 win at Watford. Less positive results have included a 3-1 home defeat to West Ham, a 5-0 loss at St Mary's to Arsenal in the FA Cup and a 3-2 defeat to Man Utd in the final of the ECL Cup when they probably should have won.

Remarkably it's now 12 games across all competitions where they haven't been involved in a draw.

Centre-back rock and skipper Virgil van Dyjk is still out and Claude Puel will be sweating on the fitness of star striker Manolo Gabbiadini, who limped off after just 31 minutes at White Hart Lane a couple of weeks ago.

Bournemouth

After a poor February, Bournemouth have hit back in March taking seven points from a possible nine. And those two 'dropped' points at Old Trafford were certainly no disgrace: that was the infamous 1-1 at Old Trafford that saw them play the whole of the second half with 10 men after Harry Arter saw red and resulted in a further subsequent suspension for Tyrone Mings. The left-back is still suspended but Arter is now back.

Their in-form man is Josh King. The Norway international has scored eight of their last 12 goals with two of those being penalties.

Meanwhile, Jack Wilshere's troubles continue on the South Coast. Having arrived as a big star loan signing, he was finally dropped for the West Ham game. Given the cherries won both that one and the next one at Swansea without him, he may find a return to the starting XI hard work before the end of the season.

Match Odds

Southampton are 1.67 to win this match. If you do want to back them, you'll have recent head-to-head records on your side because the Saints have won each of the last three matches between the two by 2-0.

But that's probably the only reason to take that price. Bournemouth are playing well at the moment, are on exactly the same number of points as Southampton and an odds-on quote in the Premier League should in my opinion be reserved for the Chelseas and Tottenhams of this world when at home; I'm not sure Southampton are in that category.

It's also worth remembering that the hosts will either be without Gabbiadini or will have him half-fit so that's yet another reason to oppose them. A lay of Southampton at 1.67 it is.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5 Goals

A couple of weeks ago a bet on over 1.5 first-half goals paid out nicely at 17/10 and it may just be worth going to the well again. That bet would have paid out in four out of Bournemouth's last six matches and in all of Southampton's last five matches.

Neither side is at their best defensively right now and with very little value on the more high-profile goals markets like over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, this may be the way to go again, this time at a slightly shorter 6/4.

To Score

If he was fit and definitely starting, Gabbiadini would be the obvious place to start but the fact he's not even listed on the Sportsbook market suggests we might not see him at all.

Nathan Redmond is always a tempter at 7/4 and his pace and movement seems to allow him to have at least one scoring chance a game but his goalscoring record just isn't good enough to justify that price. James Ward-Prowse is another who looks like he's got a goal in him but with just three strikes this season in the league, you'd surely want considerably bigger than 13/5.

If you want to back a Bournemouth player, it's hard to look past the aforementioned King. We've mentioned his recent scoring record already and looking at the bigger picture, it's now 11 for the season. The only negative with him is that having missed a penalty against West Ham (before going on to score a hat-trick) he may be off penalty duty. But then again, he may not. Either way, King looks a far better value price at 12/5 than anyone else in this market. You may even get as big as 4.20 on King on the Exchange.

Ref Watch

Jonathan Ross averages exactly four yellows a game this season and has shown three reds in 28 matches officiated. If you wanted to go for a pretty safe bet, lay under four points on the bookings odds market.

Recommended Bets
1pt Lay Southampton @ 1.67

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