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Cronulla Sharks v Newcastle Knights

Saturday, April 1, 3pm (AEDT), Southern Cross Group Stadium, Sydney




Things could get ugly for the Knights when they travel to the Shire on Saturday afternoon. Nathan Brown’s men have been competitive over the first three rounds, but were were pumped 40-0 at Penrith in an ominous sign of things to come. The Sharks are starting to get back to the form which saw them win the competition last year and they could give their F/A a boost here.
History
The Sharks have won four straight against the Knights including a cumulative victory of 98-4 in two games last season. Valentine Holmes has scored 6 tries in the last two clashes against the Knights.
Form
Defending premiers Cronulla have gone loss-win-loss-win and enter this off a gritty 20-6 win over Parramatta at ANZ. Consistency has not been a key theme for the Sharks but their one-try defensive display is as close to the premiership Sharks as we have seen this year. The Knights have tried hard all season and kept their first three matches relatively close. But in their first match on the road to class opposition, Newcastle were pumped 40-0 at Penrith in an ominous sign of things to come.
Key Matchup
Brock Lamb v James Maloney. 2017 will be a big learning curve for Lamb. It’s debatable how much first grade Lamb would have seen if not for the Jarrod Mullen suspension. He’ll need a big effort from his forwards against the Sharks if he is any chance to shine. Maloney played arguably his best match of the season in the win over the Eels and picked up 2 Dally M Medal points. He scored 12 of the Sharks 20 points against the Eels and should rack up the points again this week.
Stats That Matter
Cronulla are 2-2 ATS with a 2-2 total record while Newcastle are 2-2 ATS with a 2-2 total number. The Sharks have won four straight against the Knights including a cumulative victory of 98-4 in two games last season. Four of the last five matches have tallied more than 40 points. Rounds 1-10 home favourites of 12.5 or more are 17-13 ATS with a 19-11 under record. The Knights have covered just 7 of their last 17 getting more than two converted tries. Double digit outsiders who scored single digits last start are 2-8 ATS. The Sharks are 9-6 ATS in day games at home while the Knights have covered 5 of their last 7 day games.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is finding it hard to see anything other than one-way traffic in favour of the defending premiers. The Sharks won 62-0 and 36-4 over the Knights last year and shouldn’t have too many problems finding the tryline here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Cronulla by 22
Best Bet
Cronulla -16 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 40.5 ($1.88)

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