AFL Preview: Hawks v Crows

Hawthorn v Adelaide
Saturday 1:45pm at MCG

Can the Hawks get their first win outside the Mitchell and Lewis era?

Form

Many experts thought the Hawks would run over the Bombers last week however this wasn’t to be the case. Hawthorns lack of ability to put midfield pressure on Heppell, Watson and Merrett caused them headaches and they will need to regain some defensive pressure if they are to go close against the Crows.

Adelaide was the standout performer in round 1 defeating flag favourites GWS by 51 points. It was more impressive as they were without the services of captain Taylor Walker, Jake Lever, Scott Thompson and Brad Crouch. The Crows ball movement and forward line was too much for GWS and they will look to do the same against Hawthorn this week.

Stats That Matter

– Hawks have won 7 straight against the Crows with a POT of 32%.
– 5 of the last 7 have gone over the game total.
– Adelaide went 7 from 11 ATS in Interstate games in 2016.
– The last afternoon game between the two saw 224 points scored.
– Adelaide are currently favourites here but have not started favourite against Hawthorn in any of their last 7 matches.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Hawthorn 0-1, Adelaide 1-0
2017 Over/Under: Hawthorn 1-0, Adelaide 1-0

What To Expect

Wolfy can see a high scoring affair here as Adelaide continues their goal kicking form of 2016. The Crows were the highest scoring team in 2016 and have started 2017 piling on 147 points against the Giants.  The Hawks defence lacked direction last week and with no Sam Mitchell back there steering the ship, they are as vulnerable as ever. With the Crows expecting Taylor Walker back this week, the Wolf can see this only going one way.

How It’s Shaping Up

Adelaide by 18

Recommended Bet

Over 198.5 Points ($1.88)

Player Markets

Rory Laird must get a mention after his 40 disposals, 142-fantasy point performance last week against the Giants. The last time he played Hawthorn he was kept to just the 21 disposals and Clarko will play either Breust or Puopolo in a negating role on him this week. This opens the door for Matt Crouch through the middle who should find plenty of the ball against the unaccountable Hawks midfield. The Hawks allowed two Essendon players to collect 34 or more disposals last week and another collect 29. Crouch had 29 of his own last week against the Giants and went relatively unnoticed and the Wolf can see him cracking the 30-disposal mark this week.

Recommended Bet

Matt Crouch 30+ Disposals ($1.90)