Burnley v Tottenham
Saturday 1 April, 15:00
Saturday 1 April, 15:00
Burnley
The Clarets are winless in six matches (only Middlesbrough are on a longer run) but they still look relatively safe in 13th place with 32 points, eight clear of the relegation zone and the same distance short of the magical 40-point mark.
Home form continues to sustain them, as they rank sixth in that category with 29 points from a possible 42 at Turf Moor.
Johann Gudmundsson is still sidelined with medial cruciate ligament damage and Scott Arfield is a fresh doubt after picking up a knock playing for Canada against Scotland.
Tottenham
Mauricio Pochettino's side have emerged as the second-best side in the Premier League with a tremendous run of W10 D2 L1 since mid-December.
Although leaders Chelsea are still 10 points ahead and look out of reach, Tottenham are seven points clear of fifth-placed Manchester United in the race for the Champions League places and have the added advantage of a superior goal difference to their rivals for a top-four slot.
The big issue is how they will cope without the injured Harry Kane. Vincent Janssen should be available after illness but has not impressed so far and Son Heung-min could start up front. In defence Danny Rose is still out with a knee ligament problem.
Match Odds
Burnley's home record is W9 D2 L3 and they have had standout results against Liverpool (won 2-0) and Chelsea (drew 1-1 in a match where Sean Dyche is widely seen to have won the tactical battle).
Two of their three home defeats have come in their other matches against the top six, although even then they were beaten only by a last-minute goal against Arsenal and took the lead against Manchester City before losing 2-1.
Dyche's team should be competitive again but much may depend on whether they keep a clean sheet (five wins out of five at home when they have, but only four out of nine when they have haven't).
Tottenham have been one of the best away sides in recent years but their standards have slipped this season and their record on the road is W4 D6 L3, which makes them the worst of the top six on away form.
Their fixture list has been rather lopsided, however, as this is their first away game since losing 2-0 at Liverpool on February 11 and they still have to play several of the strugglers (their last six visits, starting here, are to teams in the bottom nine).
Tottenham's three away defeats have been at Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool, which indicates they will be hard to beat even for Burnley.
The question mark concerns Tottenham's high draw rate on the road and whether they will do enough to win. Their Premier League record without Kane is not terrible (W3 D3 L0) but the worry is that they don't score many goals without him (none or one in six out of nine Premier League or Champions League games).
With two draws out of four away to bottom-half sides, Tottenham are far from a safe bet at short odds and the draw is more attractive at 3.95.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Both teams are hovering around an even split of over/under, although the figures shift markedly for Burnley at home (nine out of 14 under).
Two of Tottenham's most disappointing away results were the goalless draws at Bournemouth and Sunderland, so again much will depend on whether Burnley can shut them out.
If Tottenham score, the chances are the goals will go over 2.5 (six out of nine on the road have in those circumstances this season).
Double Chance
This is a reasonable option on Burnley and Home or Draw is available at 2.34.
Only three out of 14 visitors have left Turf Moor with three points this season and one of those was Swansea on the opening day of the season, since when Burnley have been very solid at home.
Ref Watch
Stuart Attwell tends to be a low-key ref in his Premier League games, with five out of seven this season having 30 bookings points or lower (plus another all-Premier tie in the FA Cup).
Recommended Bet
Back The Draw at 3.95
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