Liverpool v Everton: Back a tempestuous affair at Anfield

Liverpool v Everton
Saturday April 1, 12:30pm
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this vital derby game in decent form. They followed up good wins against Burnley and Arsenal with a solid 1-1 draw against Man City, and sit now proudly in fourth (they're currently 1.55 to finish in the top four places this season) after a wobble at the turn of the year.

A concern for manager Jurgen Klopp will be the injury to Adam Lallana, picked up on international duty, and the continuing absence of key midfielder and captain Jordan Henderson who is struggling to shake off injury and hasn't played since the win over Tottenham back in February.

Daniel Sturridge is back in full training and may feature at some stage.

Everton

Ronald Koeman's Everton are in fine form currently and are flying high in seventh, just six points behind Saturday's opponents and only below Arsenal on goal difference. It's been a good season for the Toffees, and they still have an outside chance of breaking into the top four.

Rumours circulating around Goodison Park about the future of the manager as well as star-striker Romelu Lukaku do occasionally threaten to undermine their progress, but in reality nothing is going to happen on that until the summer anyway, so if the group can focus, there's no reason they can't finish the season strongly.

Seamus Coleman is out for the foreseeable future, Romiro Funes Mori is injured and Yannick Bolasie and Morgan Schneiderlin are doubts.

Match Odds

Liverpool are big favourites for this one at 1.75, and this is largely down to two factors. Firstly, Everton are far better at home than they are away, and secondly, their record at Anfield is absolutely woeful. They haven't won there since 1999 (a 0-1 win through a Kevin Campbell goal which was one of the best Premier League games I've ever seen), and they haven't beaten the Reds at all since 2010.

There is a vulnerability about this Liverpool side though, and we've seen worse teams than Everton exploit Klopp's men this season. I just wonder if it can be done in a derby match though - I expect both sides concentration and application to be top-notch here, and if that's the case I think Liverpool will probably win.

Everton are priced at 5.30, with the Draw currently trading at a big-looking 4.10.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us that this fixture sees an average of 2.27 goals per game, well under the 2.5 goal threshold, yet Unders currently trades at 2.22, so at first glance it's a back. The reservation here for me is Everton's away performances can be very poor - they toiled at Middlesbrough and Stoke, and have been on the end of a beating at Chelsea earlier in the year.

I can see caginess here though, and so I will probably come down on the Unders side of the fence.

Overs is trading at a shorter price of 1.79.

Sending Off?

It's become a bit of a cliché to mention it around this particular game, but it really does see a lot of red cards, 21 to be precise, more than any other fixture in the league. Indeed, last season, Funes Mori was given his marching orders in this game last season.

I wouldn't put you off backing another one here - the price is a surprisingly-big 3.70.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.22
Back Yes in Sending Off? market at 3.70