NRL Preview
North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders

Saturday, March 4, 7pm (AEDT), 1300 Smiles Stadium,

Townsville

This is arguably the match of the round when the North Queensland Cowboys welcome the Canberra Raiders to Townsville. The Wolf is always wary of reading too much into trial form, but it’s hard to ignore the 44-0 loss by the Raiders to the Knights. The loss of Jarrod Croker to injury and the suspension of Junior Paulo, makes this a tough road trip for the Green Machine.
History
The Cowboys have won the last 8 matches against the Raiders at 1300 Smiles Stadium, with the Raiders last win in Townsville coming in 2006, where a Todd Carney field goal proved the difference. The Raiders won last year’s clash over the Cowboys in Canberra by 26-12, with fullback Jack Wighton scoring a double.
Form
North Queensland were the raging hot favourites for the Nines but were bundled out in the quarters by a hot Melbourne Storm. The Cowboys had two close trial wins with an 11-10 victory over the Sydney Roosters and an 18-16 win over the Wests Tigers, the latter when close to full strength. Canberra were humiliated 44-0 by Newcastle in a trial in a result that has overshadowed their entire preseason. A weakened Raiders team also failed to advance beyond the group stage in the Auckland Nines.
Key Matchup
Johnathan Thurston v Aidan Sezer. If the Raiders are any hope of causing an upset, two things need to happen. Thurston needs to have an off-night and Sezer needs to play out of his skin. We all know what to expect from Thurston, but Sezer needs to produce consistent football in 2017 for the Raiders to build on their impressive 2016 season. JT gets the verdict here.
Stats That Matter
North Queensland have covered just 1 of their last 5 season openers while Canberra have covered their last three. Home favourites Rounds 1-4 cover at 55% since 2008 while the over hits at 55% when there is a home favourite of 8 or more over the same time. The Cowboys are 22-12 ATS as a home favourite of 6.5 or more since 2013 and have covered 8 of their last 9. The Raiders have covered eight straight road games and four straight getting 8 or more.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf thinks the Cowboys will be tough to topple in Townsville and road trips don’t come much tougher, especially first-up. The Raiders forward pack will stick with the Cowboys early, before JT and Morgan go to work in the second stanza against a tired Raiders side.
How It’s Shaping Up
North Queensland by 12
Best BetNorth Queensland -8 ($1.90)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 42.5 ($1.88)

0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook

Post a Comment

 
Top