Against All Odds: Florence and the goalscoring machine

Fiorentina v Torino
Monday February 27, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1

This match will be an interesting test for Fiorentina as they have to put their shock Europa League exit to Borussia M'Gladbach behind them. They had won the first leg 1-0 in Germany and were 2-0 up within 30 minutes on Thursday. A 17 minute four goal blitz by the Germans had their heads in a spin and they now need to concentrate on making the top five in Serie A and qualifying for Europe again next season.

Their form in the league had been pretty good but they've suffered recent defeats against Roma and Milan, which is a double blow as they are both rivals for European qualification.

Torino were also beaten by Roma when they were last in action as they went down 4-1 in the capital. Prior to that they had beaten Pescara 5-3, but they were better value for the win than that as they led 5-0 after an hour.

Siniša Mihajlović's side are in ninth place but when it comes to average goals per game, they top the Serie A table. Their matches are averaging 3.44 goals each time and that has led to 16 of their 25 fixtures seeing the ball in the net on at least three occasions. Of those 16, a dozen of them would have seen this selection land - including three of their six most recent outings.

The hosts don't have quite as good stats as their average is at the 3.08 mark, but eight of their 25 have seen under 3.5 layers collect and their last six scorelines at Stadio Artemio Franchi have been 2-1, 2-1, 3-3, 2-1, 3-3 and 3-0. That is in Serie A - it doesn't include the 4-2 defeat here on Thursday.

Andrea Belotti will be looking forward to taking on this Fiorentina defence and Serie A's third leading goalscorer this year will need to be in fine form if he's to cover for his own team's defensive frailties. Which is why, with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.59 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Under 3.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Torino @ 1.59