Swansea v Burnley: Improving hosts can boost survival hopes with win

Swansea 2.04 v Burnley 4.20; The Draw 3.55
Saturday, 15:00

Swansea

Swansea looked down and out at the end of December after their home defeat to Bournemouth left them staring at relegation. But the dismissal of Bob Bradley and the arrival of Paul Clement has made a huge difference and propelled the team on the road towards safety. The Swans have put together an excellent run of form which has taken them out of the bottom three of the Premier League.

Their revival started with a stunning 3-2 win at Liverpool and this gave the side a huge confidence boost which they have built on since. Swansea have since posted home victories over Southampton and fellow strugglers Leicester City to give themselves a decent chance of staying up. The side are still not out of trouble, only two points above the relegation zone, but the picture has improved dramatically from six weeks ago.

Burnley

The Clarets have enjoyed a strong league campaign following promotion but suffered major disappointment after their shock defeat at home to non-league Lincoln City in the FA Cup last month. Sean Dyche's side suffered a rare loss at Turf Moor where they have been so successful this season in the Premier League. In total, 29 of their 31 points have come at home.

This underlines the problems Burnley have faced on the road. The side remain without an away league victory this season with just two points from 12 matches. Their home form has carried them up to mid-table but they will be determined to get off the mark away sooner rather than later. Burnley claimed a 1-1 draw at Hull last weekend.

Match Odds

Swansea are rightly favourites at 2.04 and worth backing to continue their path towards safety. The hosts have won three of their last five games and defeated Burnley earlier this season - their third successive win over them. Coming up against a side with such a poor away record, this is another great opportunity to pick up three points and Swansea are fancied to achieve this.

Burnley are available at 4.20 but this makes no appeal whatsoever. The Clarets have a wretched record on the road and their recent results against Swansea also inspire no confidence. Dyche's side are bound to win away at some point but against a side running into form and in greater need of the victory the wait looks likely to go on.

The draw is around the 3.55 mark but this does not really tempt either. Only one of the last nine meetings between the sides have finished level. Swansea also have not drawn a match for 15 matches in a run stretching back to November so a stalemate does not look a likely outcome.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

In 13 of Swansea's last 15 matches there have been at least three goals which suggests odds of 2.18 on over 2.5 goals are well worth considering. But conversely five of Burnley's last six games have seen no more than two goals. Under three goals is 1.81 and with contrasting stats for the two teams this market may be worth avoiding.

Ref Watch

Anthony Taylor has dished out three red cards this season with two of them coming in the heated clash between Manchester City and Chelsea in December. Taylor has not been shy in handing out bookings with eight yellow cards shown in Liverpool's recent game against Tottenham and seven in Middlesbrough's FA Cup win over Accrington.

Opta Stat

Swansea have won all three of their previous Premier League meetings with the Clarets, all by a 1-0 scoreline. A repeat result can be backed at 7.80.

Recommended Bet

Back Swansea to win at 2.04