NRL Preview: Dragons v Panthers

NRL Preview
St George Illawarra Dragons v Penrith Panthers
Saturday, March 4, 4.30pm (AEDT), UOW Jubilee Oval, Sydney

The Dragons will host joint premiership favourites, Penrith in an intriguing match-up to kick off Super Saturday. The Wolf is expecting a tough year for the Red V, but they should be competitive here especially on their home turf.

History

The Dragons have won the last two clashes against the Panthers and won last year’s clash in Wollongong 14-12. The Panthers have won their last two trips to Kogarah.

Form

St George Illawarra didn’t show a lot in the Nines with just a single win before mixing their trial form with a win over the Wests Tigers before a hapless Charity Shield outing where they were flogged by South Sydney 32-14. Penrith have continued on their hot form from last year with a big Auckland Nines where they reached the final before big wins over Canterbury and Parramatta keeping the Bulldogs to 10 points and the Eels to six.

Key Matchup

Josh Dugan v Matt Moylan. Paul McGregor’s experiment with Dugan in the centres appears to be over and he’ll be keen to remind everyone what a dynamic fullback he is. Moylan is a star on the rise and could find himself in the No.6 jersey down the track. Both fullbacks will want to start the season strongly as positions for a sky blue jersey will be hotly contested this season.

Stats That Matter

Home underdogs Round 1-4 getting 4 or more start are an incredibly 37-8 ATS. The Dragons have covered 7 of their last 8 season openers with five straight-up victories. Penrith have covered 3 of their last 4 Round 1 games.  The Dragons have covered 7 of their last 9 at Kogarah and are 3-1 ATS as an underdog at the ground since 2015.

Final Thoughts

The Wolf is keen on the unders and thinks the Dragons will have a strong focus on defence after their poor showing in the Charity Shield. The Panthers will win a tight one on the back of the class of Moylan and Nathan Cleary, but the start looks too much for Anthony Griffin’s men to cover.

How It’s Shaping Up
Penrith by 4

Best BetSt George Illawarra +6.5 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 38.5 ($1.88)