Monday September 5, 19:45
Live on ITV
England fail to impress ahead of key fixture
If you're a glass half full kind of fan then England's 4-0 win in Malta was a case of job done as the Three Lions added another three points to their Group F total to edge closer to the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
But if that tipple you're drinking is half empty then it was another mediocre display as Gareth Southgate's men failed to impose themselves on the world's 190th ranked team - a side officially worse than Bangladesh, Guam and Macau to name three - unable to score in the first half and having to wait until the 85th minute or later before adding to Harry Kane's opener.
Of course, it must be said that defensive football is Malta's stock in trade, it's simply how they play the game. Only Slovakia and Scotland were able to score more than two past the Maltese backline in the last 12 months, and don't forget that England only defeated Malta 2-0 at Wembley in October 2016.
But whatever the merits (or not) of Friday night's result, England still lead the group with three games to go. Their two point advantage over Slovakia is a touch precarious as a win for the visitors would raise the prospect of Southgate's side being forced into a play-off to reach Russia 2018. Monday night's match really does look absolutely key to the final standings in Group F.
Dangerous Slovakia in winning Group F form
Slovakia kept within touching distance of England thanks to a 1-0 home win over Slovenia. Like England they left it late, going ahead via an own goal in the 81st minute after captain and talisman Marek Hamšík had struck the bar, and they closed the game out from there. Statistically, Slovakia were the superior side, dominating possession, passes, chances and more but just struggled to find the breakthrough.
The victory meant Slovakia have now won five straight in the group, after opening the campaign with successive defeats - one to England (1-0 to a 95th minute Adam Lallana winner).
England a short price to win against dangerous opponents
England top the group by two points and have won all three qualifiers at Wembley so far but they look a touch short in the market at 1.47.
The visitors come into the game on a good winning run in this qualifying campaign yet can be backed at a huge 8.40 to shock what is still a developing England side under Southgate. The Three Lions' last two Group F fixtures are Slovenia at Wembley on October 5 and away to Lithuania on October 8 - a pair of games likely to yield six points - so this is a must-win game should the visitors hope to top the group. The draw is 4.50.
There's plenty riding on this fixture and it would be a surprise were either team to go for the jugular from the off. It's more likely to be a slowburner with the visitors allowing England possession and letting the home side try to unlock a defence that has kept three clean sheets in the last five fixtures.
HT-FT market offers better returns
If backing the home win I'd be tempted to go for a much bigger return that the match odds by backing draw-England in the halftime-fulltime market - an option currently available at 3/1 on the Sportsbook.
Key game could be tight on goals
I'm also drawn to a low goals total, although the price is not particularly appetising at around 1.80 on both Exchange and Sportsbook. I think it's the more likely option but I'd be looking for bigger odds than what is currently available.
In a similar vein to the HT/FT bet backing the second half to yield more goals than the first looks an obvious move even if it's even money compared to 11/5 for the opening 45 minutes on the Sportsbook. You're likely to get a slightly bigger price if you wait a while and strike your bet on the Exchange.
Recommended Bet
Back Second Half in Half with Most Goals market @ evens or better
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