Serie A Betting: Expect goals when Lazio and Milan meet in Rome

Benevento v Torino
Sunday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1

I was convinced that there would be goals in Benevento's second Serie A game, against Bologna, but a 1-0 win for the away side cost this column: at the risk of flogging a struggling horse, it's a theme that I'm going to stick with for Week 3 of the season.

The logic last time was sound, and remains so: Benevento were unfortunate in that Bologna game, having a last minute equaliser ruled out by VAR and missing various other chances, and the statistics show that they are a team which likes to play on the front foot.

Only Fiorentina have had more shots than their 36 so far this season, and they looked against both Sampdoria and Bologna like a team that would be involved in quite a few high-scoring games. We shouldn't be discouraged by one misfire.

Torino's statistics also indicate that they tend to be involved in games with goals: their last nine away from home have resulted in both teams scoring, and last weekend's fortunate clean sheet against Sassuolo was their first in 20 games. They have a man in form in Adem Ljajic, though, and will pose a threat to the newbies from Campania.

Benevento look a big price to beat an overrated Torino at 4.60, but I think that Over 3.5 Goals is reasonably priced at 2.90. Goals will follow these two teams around, and there's a good chance of at least four here.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals in Benevento v Torino @ 2.90

Lazio v Milan
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3

There's an early season meeting of two of Serie A's big guns in Rome, and a first real test for Milan's new money, as the Rossoneri head to the Olimpico to play Lazio.

Milan were fortunate to come away with three points against Cagliari last time and there's still much to prove for their rebuilt team: I think that they'll flourish eventually, there's too much talent for them not to, but they might just be worth opposing as Vincenzo Montella looks to get things right.

Lazio are 2.50 for the win, Milan are available at around 3.00, and I can see why layers are finding it hard to make up their minds. Lazio may have won only one of their last nine in Serie A against Milan, but are a much more settled side than Montella's, while Milan have so much potential and only Napoli have managed more than their 15 shots on target so far this season. They seem to be aiming to please.

I'm sorely tempted to back Milan, as they've started the season so well, and look a big price to me. They had 17 players away on international duty, though, and I have a feeling that might add to the settling in time for this new squad.

Lazio seem certain to give Nani his debut, and after they were so shot shy in their opening home game against SPAL, they'll be desperate to put on a show for the home fans in what could, for once, be a really good atmosphere for an afternoon game at the Olimpico.

Given the attacking talent on both sides, and the stats so far this season, I think that the safer bet is to go for goals here as well, and with Over 3.5 available at 3.00, I'll make this my second tip in that market this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals in Lazio v Milan @ 3.00

Sampdoria v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3

The Saturday night game at Marassi rounds off this week's column, and it's the same bet. I make no apology for that, as some weeks a theme seems to develop, and this looks likely to be another involving and entertaining game.

Sampdoria have won their opening two games, and done so in relatively buccaneering fashion, 2-1 on both occasions, while Roma's bright start away to Atalanta faded badly at the Olimpico, when they were simply blown away by Inter. Suffer a similar fate here and already Eusebio Di Francesco will be feeling the heat.

Marco Giampaolo is a really clever Coach, and he'll have watched the way that Inter dealt with Roma's deficiencies, and while he doesn't have Mauro Icardi to take advantage, he does have an in form Fabio Quagliarella, the veteran who is proving that he still retains plenty of ability.

Roma may have only scored once in each of their opening two games, but they hit the woodwork three times against Inter and I don't think that their performance deserved to be criticised quite as much as it was.

There are defensive issues with both of these sides, though: Roma have allowed 14 shots on target in their opening two games, with Samp one of only two teams to have conceded more. This will be lively, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a high scoring draw.

Recommended Bet: Over 3.5 goals in Sampdoria v Roma @ 2.52