Saturday, September 9, 7:40pm (AEST) at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
It could be worth putting a line through the Sea Eagles 28-12 victory over the Panthers last week as they are a completely different side away from Brookvale, failing to cover their last seven away from home. The Panthers will be keen for revenge and could be boosted by the late inclusion of Dylan Edwards if he can overcome a knee injury. The only sour note for the Panthers is the off-field saga surround Matt Moylan which is an untimely distraction for the club.
HistoryThe Panthers had won five straight against the Sea Eagles before going down to the Sea Eagles 28-12 at Lottoland on Saturday. Three of the last four matches have topped 42 points.
FormManly bounced back to finish sixth on the ladder with wins against the Warriors and Penrith after just one win in their previous five. The Sea Eagles have conceded at least 20 in five of their last seven. Manly finished the season ranked fourth in scoring but a lowly 11th in defence. Penrith’s finals momentum came to a crashing halt against Manly last week, losing 28-12 to the Sea Eagles after a 16-14 home loss to the Dragons. Prior to that Penrith had won seven straight. The Panthers ranked sixth in scoring this season while they finished ninth in defence.
Stats That Matter– Manly are 11-13 ATS with a 15-9 over number while Penrith are 12-12 ATS with a 13-11 under record.
– Penrith had won five straight against Manly but the Sea Eagles hammered the Panthers by 16 when the teams met last Saturday at Brookvale.
– This is the first meeting between the teams since 1985 at a major venue.
– Three of the last four matches have topped 42 points.
– Manly have been held to 12 or fewer in four of the last six clashes.
– The Sea Eagles have covered just two of their last 12 as a favourite.
– Penrith have covered seven of their last nine matches.
– Penrith have gone over in 4 of their last 6 road games.
– The under is 22-13 when Penrith are a road underdog.
– Manly have failed to cover their last seven away from Brookvale while they have gone over in nine of their last 10 away from their home ground.
– Manly are 7-18 ATS as a favourite away from Brookvale since 2014.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is tipping a big response from the Panthers after they were dismantled by the Sea Eagles last week, and they’ll no doubt relish the chance to play Dylan Walker again after a very lippy display in the Sea Eagles win. The neutral ground plays into the Panthers favour and the stats don’t lie, Manly are 7-18 ATS as a favourite away from Brookvale since 2014. Take the Panthers with the +4.5 start and straight up.
How It’s Shaping UpPenrith by 2
Best Bet
Penrith +4.5 ($1.91)
Penrith +4.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 40.5 ($1.90)
Over 40.5 ($1.90)
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