2017 has been the year of the young brigade playing with no fear and the US Open has been no exception with teenagers Shapovalov and Rublev making it to the second week. One year is a long time in any professional sport and Rublev is living proof that is also applies in tennis. A year ago he lost in the qualifiers here and a year on he finds himself in the quarter of a Grand Slam. The Wolf admits that he has flown under the radar but anyone who beats multiple former top 10 players (Dimitrov and Goffin) in straight sets at a major needs to be respected. He won his maiden ATP title in Umag 2 months ago and it comes as no surprise to see that it was on clay. We have seen the clay courters have great success in the slower conditions at Flushing Meadows and Rublev is a pure ball striker. He will consistently hit down the lines and it is a tactic that Djokovic used with great success in a run of 11 wins in his last 13 matches against Nadal. Rublev will break the Nadal serve and do so on multiple occasions but the key for the Russian will be his 1st serve percentage. If he gives Rafa enough looks at his second delivery the world number 1 will make him pay. The fact that his 1st serve percentage is just 60% for the tournament means that there is a lot of room for improvement. If he can get to 65-70% in this match he will be extended it to 4 and even 5 sets. The conditions will be cold tomorrow and that is more good news for Rublev.
Best: Over 31.5 games ($1.85)
Roger Federer v Juan Martin Del Potro
If you missed it go back and watch the 4th and 5th sets of Del Potro’s win over Thiem. It will go down as one of the great comebacks! In his post match interview he admitted that he was about to retire from the match but said the crowd wanted more tennis. He fought through illness and the pain barrier – saving multiple match points to force a 5th. From that point on there could only be one winner. Del Potro has a habit of creating great memories at Flushing Meadows. It was almost a decade ago that he beat Federer in the final to claim his maiden slam but the 19 time Grand Slam champion poses an even bigger obstacle this time around. Federer leads the series 15-6, winning their last 3 encounters including their most recent in Miami this year. On that occasion Federer won with consummate ease. He produced 23 ground strokes winners to Del Potro’s 8 with the Argentine having just the one backhand winner. It is no secret that he can no longer drive through the ball from that wing following so many surgeries and he now opts for the slice very regularly. Federer with constantly attack his backhand with inside out forehands and will also look to approach with the forehand up the line. The Wolf cannot see this turning into a contest even if Del Potro was fully fit. Coming off a 5 setter and evidently ill not even the crowd will be able to save him in this one. Federer to pounce early and take complete control.
Best: Federer -5.5 ($1.80)
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