Friday, September 8, 7:55pm (AEST) at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Roosters (2nd) and Broncos (3rd) will kick off the NRL finals series in a blockbuster at Allianz Stadium on Friday night. The Broncos have suffered a major blow in the lead-up to this clash, with skipper Darius Boyd ruled out with a hamstring injury suffered against the Cowboys last week. The Roosters should be at full strength, with the return of winger Daniel Tupou from a groin injury, while Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra are expected to return after missing last week’s clash against the Titans. The loser will be get another bite of the cherry, while the winner gets the luxury of the week off and is one game away from making the grand final.
HistoryThe Roosters and Broncos have split the last eight games evenly with the teams splitting the series this year. The Broncos were comfortable 32-8 winners at Suncorp Stadium back in Round 6, before the Roosters bounced back in Round 13 with a narrow 18-16 victory at Allianz Stadium. Roosters skipper Boyd Cordner scored a double in the Roosters two-point win. The Roosters have won the last four meetings between the sides at the Allianz Stadium.
FormThe Sydney Roosters finished the year second on the ladder but almost fell into it after a disastrous showing against the Gold Coast at home where they won only on the bell. They finished the year with three straight wins but their last victory by more than a converted try came against Newcastle in Round 20. They finished the year ranked seventh in attack and third in defence. Brisbane finished the year as the second best attacking team and the fourth rated defensive side. They came home strong with eight wins in their last 11 games and bounced back from a bad home loss to Parramatta with a gritty win North Queensland in Townsville. The Broncos have conceded 12 points or fewer in four of their last five.
Stats That Matter– Sydney Roosters finished the year 12-12 ATS with a 15-9 under record while Brisbane are 13-9 ATS with a 17-7 over record.
– The Roosters and Broncos have split the last eight games evenly with the teams splitting the series this year.
– The Roosters have won the last four meetings between the sides at the SFS.
– The last three games between the teams have all tallied 40 or fewer.
– The Roosters have covered just 4 of their last 10 at Allianz while the Broncos have covered three of four since 2014.
– The Roosters are 10-16 ATS as a favourite of six points or fewer since 2014.
– Brisbane are 19-12 ATS as an underdog over that time with a 13-6 ATS record interstate as an underdog.
– Interstate underdogs of 3.5 or less cover at 71% since 2014 with the under 28-12 when the interstate underdog was a last start winner.
– Brisbane are 24-12 ATS after conceding 12 points or fewer.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf tipped the Roosters to take out the NRL Premiership at the beginning of the season and is sticking with them to get the job done here. They weren’t great against the Titans last week, but could be forgiven for already having an eye on this clash against the Broncos. Home ground advantage will be a huge factor as will the absence of Darius Boyd for the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Roosters will be full-strength at the right end of the season. The Wolf says to take the Chooks 1-12 in a low-scoring and physical encounter.
How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 4
Best Bet
Sydney 1-12 ($3.10)
Sydney 1-12 ($3.10)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 38.5 ($1.90)
Under 38.5 ($1.90)
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