Bundesliga Betting: Nagelsmann to impress Bayern again

Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich
Saturday September 09, 17:30
Live on BT Sport ESPN

Bayern Munich have built up a reputation in recent years for pilfering top talent from clubs who have the temerity to start building a challenge to their dominance. While Hoffenheim have no pretensions to win the title, last season's excellencedidn't go unnoticed, and Bayern swooped.

Dominant defender Niklas Sule and midfield general Sebastian Rudy have both made the trip from Sinsheim to Munich, and both have made an early impact. Sule scored in his Bundesliga debut for Bayern, while Rudy's calm and assured displays in midfield have already seen him dubbed as a successor to Xabi Alonso, which is high praise indeed.

The next big name to make the switch from Hoffe to Bayern may not be a player. 30-year-old Julian Nagelsmann continues to build a reputation as one of the brightest young coaches on the planet, he followed Bayern as a boy, and was only born 65 kilometres west of Munich. Although he has denied any immediate plans to move to the Allianz Arena, his current career trajectory seems to lead to just one destination.

Although Hoffenheim crashed out of the Champions League to Liverpool, they have made a solid start to the Bundesliga season. They beat Werder Bremen 1-0, and twice came from behind to draw 2-2 at Bayer Leverkusen. However, their resources will be stretched this weekend by injuries to Serge Gnabry, Adam Szalai, Kevin Vogt, Benjamin Hubner and Steven Zuber.

Bayern have personnel issues too. David Alaba was injured on duty with Austria, so Rafinha will fill in. James Rodriguez may finally make his Bayern debut after playing for Colombia against Brazil, but having played the full 90 minutes of that qualifier, he may only be a substitute.

Bayern have taken maximum points from two games, but they haven't really hit top gear yet, and they had a lot of players spread across the globe on international duty. Hoffenheim took four points off them last season, and haven't lost a Bundesliga home game since May 2016. I'm a little surprised therefore to see Bayern as short as 1.47 for the win, even with a few Hoffenheim players missing.

If we use the Asian Handicap, we can give Hoffenheim a goal start at [2.33], which means we only lose our stake if Bayern win by two goals or more. Bayern have only won by two clear goals or more in four of their last 12 Bundesliga away games.

Recommended Bet
Back Hoffenheim +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at [2.33]

Hamburg v RB Leipzig
Friday September 08, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 3

Hamburg fans have spent the international break checking the table to make sure there's been no cruel mistake. HSV are joint-top after winning both games so far. They haven't exactly sparkled in their wins over Augsburg and Koln, but they've shown plenty of grit, and a clinical edge in attack. American striker Bobby Woodhas been scoring for club and country, but now has to maintain that momentum, despite doubts over his fitness because of jet-lag.

Leipzig needed a superb second-half display to thrash Freiburg on Matchday Two, as they came from behind, and they seem a bit too short here at 1.97. They have better players than Hamburg, but things haven't quite been clicking for them so far.

Hamburg surprisingly won the clubs' last meeting 3-0 in Leipzig, and have now taken maximum points from nine of their last 12 Bundesliga home games, with just one league defeat at the Volksparkstadion since November. On that basis alone, I'll take on the visitors.

Recommended Bet
Lay RB Leipzig at 1.97

Freiburg v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday September 09, 14:30

In terms of Bundesliga results, Peter Bosz could barely have made a better start as Borussia Dortmund coach. His side swept away Wolfsburg 3-0 at the Volkswagen Arena, and then beat Hertha Berlin 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park. Teenage superstar Christian Pulisic is stepping up to compensate for the departure of Ousmane Dembele, while the arrival of Ukrainian wing wizard Andriy Yarmolenko adds to the dizzying array of attacking talent at Bosz's disposal.

Last season, Dortmund won 3-0 and 3-1 against Freiburg, and I suspect another handsome victory is on the cards. Freiburg lost Vincenzo Grifo and Maximilian Philipp in the summer (Philipp went to BVB), departures which have robbed them of a huge chunk of creativity. So far, Freiburg have drawn 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt, and been hammered 4-1 at RB Leipzig.

Coach Christian Streich is used to turning water into wine in the Black Forest, but I'm not sure how tasty this season's vintage will prove to be.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at [2.15]