Zverev and Tsonga out after Wednesday upsets
Several shock results were the talking points on Wednesday in the French capital, with Alexander Zverev ousted by Robin Haase, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was dumped out by his veteran countryman, Julien Benneteau.
Benneteau's reward is a clash with David Goffin, with the Belgian a 1.36 favourite to advance to the quarter-finals.
No doubt, Benneteau will enjoy plenty of crowd support in his home country, and as I mentioned earlier in the week, has a better record indoors throughout his career compared to other surfaces. Certainly, he isn't without a chance here, although I do feel that market prices are broadly correct.
Del Potro outright chances boosted by Zverev defeat
Haase is less likely to continue his progress in Paris, with our outright selection Juan Martin Del Potro - so impressive indoors this year - a heavy 1.15 favourite to end the Dutchman's journey. Without doubt, Haase did us a favour yesterday by defeating Zverev, and I'd be very surprised if Del Potro failed to progress past Haase in this.
Bautista-Agut poor against top ten opponents
From a value perspective, my model highlighted several spots - Roberto Bautista-Agut, at 2.48 versus Marin Cilic is one, in the night match, and my model wanting to oppose Cilic isn't necessarily anything new.
My concern here would be more towards Bautista-Agut lacking that higher gear, with his record against top 10 players pretty mediocre at 7-39 in his career, and 1-8 this year.
Fatigue a worry for over-rated Pouille
My model also felt Lucas Pouille is over-rated at 1.41 against Jack Sock, who progressed past Kyle Edmund in a tight three-setter on Wednesday. Sock has been out of form over the last couple of months, while Pouille won in Vienna last week, so the market is certainly pricing this on recent form, as opposed to any concerns that Pouille might be tired after playing a lot of tennis in the past week and a half.
Mahut a value underdog against in-form Krajinovic
Nicolas Mahut, as a 2.40 underdog against the in-form Filip Krajinovic, rounds off the match winner value choices highlighted by my model today, and it's an interesting match to analyse.
No doubt, the Serbian qualifier, Krajinovic, is playing the best tennis of his career this year, winning nine of his last ten matches, and is 40-10 in his last 50 matches, albeit mostly at Challenger level. He's now at a career high ranking though, while Mahut, who turns 36 in January, has just dropped out of the top 100.
It's worth mentioning thought that Krajinovic's recent wins have generally been against vastly inferior opponents - only Sam Querrey, Yuichi Sugita and Andrey Rublev look like decent scalps - and when winning the Almaty Challenger without dropping a set at the start of October, all his wins came via a starting price of around 1.30 or below.
Furthermore, Mahut has a much better record in quicker conditions - either indoor or on grass - compared to other surfaces and after defeating Pablo Carreno-Busta in facile fashion on Tuesday looks to be motivated to succeed in a big tournament in his home country. My model actually made him a slight favourite, so the current market line looks value.
Tiebreaks likely in Isner and Dimitrov match
Finally, I'm disappointed to see that the Sportsbook is pretty correct in pricing the likelihood of John Isner and Grigor Dimitrov playing a first set tiebreak at 10/11. My model made this a 51% chance and I was hoping they'd be offering odds against, but sadly there's no angle with this here today.
Recommended Bets
Back Nicolas Mahut at 2.40 to beat Filip Krajinovic
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment