Southampton v Burnley
Saturday 4 November, 15:00

Below the benchmark
Mauricio Pellegrino's reign at Southampton has been a slow-burner but his side are unbeaten in three matches now, the latest being a 1-1 draw at Brighton.

That leaves them 10th in the table on 13 points, although the benchmark for Pellegrino remains the top-eight position Southampton have occupied for the past four seasons.

Striker Charlie Austin and midfielder Mario Lemina could both be back in contention for a starting place after missing the Brighton match.

Best outside the big six
Burnley have started the season strongly and currently lie seventh on 16 points, with only the big six teams above them.

Away form, which was their weakness last season, has been a strength this time with only one defeat in their first five road trips - and that was against rampant leaders Manchester City.

Chris Wood, who missed last week's 1-0 home win over Newcastle with a thigh problem, could return to lead the attack. Nahki Wells, signed in the summer from Huddersfield, could be ready for his debut after being among the unused subs last week.

Saints look poor value
The difficulty with both teams is that they are low-scoring - both have managed only nine goals in their first 10 games, which puts them among the bottom eight on that measure.

They also have strong defences (Burnley have conceded nine goals, Southampton have let in 10), which indicates this will be a tight match.

Southampton have failed to score in three of their five home league matches and three of their six home goals have come from the penalty spot. Given Burnley's defensive organisation, the Saints do not look attractive at win odds of 1.69.

Whether Burnley can win is open to question due to their low-scoring nature, although their only blank on the road was at Manchester City (3-0) and they have taken positive results at Chelsea (3-2 win), Tottenham (1-1) and Liverpool (1-1).

The safe option might be something like Burnley off +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian handicap, which provides a return if the visitors keep the match close. The bet wins in full with a Burnley win or draw, half of the stake is lost with a one-goal defeat and the full stake is lost for a defeat by two goals or more.

But at the odds it could be worth chancing the Burnley win at 6.40 as their improvement on the road seems genuine.

Low score on the cards
There is an obvious conclusion on the goals front and it is no surprise that under 2.5 goals is 1.64. Both teams rank highly for unders this season - Burnley are top with 80% and Southampton joint-next on 70%.

Under 1.5 goals is 2.96 and both teams have had that outcome in half of their half of their matches this season.

The one caveat with Southampton is that on the couple of occasions when the goals have come at home this season they have really flowed, with a 3-2 win over West Ham and a 2-2 with Newcastle.

Probert low on bookings
This is the fourth Premier League match of the season for Lee Probert and he showed only two yellows in the previous three. The sample size is small but his Premier League stats put him among the more lenient referees.

Recommended Bet
Back Burnley win at 6.40

Opta Stat
Seven of the eight goals scored in Premier League meetings between these sides have been scored after half-time, with the exception being Shane Long's 37th minute strike at St Mary's in March 2015. 0-0 at half-time is 13/8 with Betfair Sportsbook.


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