Fresh from tipping four winners last week in League One, Alan Dudman previews a big few days in the FA Cup first round, and looks to the three televised matches involving third tier teams starting on Friday...
Hyde United 13.00 v MK Dons 1.25, the draw 6.00
Friday 3rd November 19:55, live on BBC Two
Odds of 1/4 are not associated with the MK Dons, and whilst there will be the big-hitters and the acca-builders getting involved in those cramped odds for the League One side taking on an opponent five tiers below - I wouldn't dream of putting up a 1.25 poke as a tip. Neither would I back anything that short.
My first instinct here is can we get the Dons beat? They are not a good team.
I've mentioned on plenty of occasions how the Buckinghamshire side are often priced-up as though Karl Robinson is still the manager, and they are producing the free-flowing football that was widely acknowledged at the time as the best in the third tier. Those days are long gone, yet the price is often around the 2.20 mark for a home match.
The MK Dons are going nowhere at the moment. They are 16th in the table, and haven't won since September. With five losses on the road and a dour, horrible performance against Bristol Rovers last weekend; that 1.25 is looking less-attractive by the minute.
However, we need to put this into context. Hyde United play in the Evo-Stik North.
Hyde's 4G pitch will be mentioned as 'the leveller', and the Dons have taken measures to train on the surface this week. I've played on a 4G plenty of times and it's quite nice with a bit of cushion - I'd rather play on that than the old astroturf that Luton and Q.P.R had. You couldn't let the balls bounce on those, unless you were about 11 foot tall.
It will favour the hosts no doubt, and we saw the advantage of such a pitch in last season's tournament when Arsenal were given a game at Sutton.
I can't profess to know too much about Hyde's form, but they are unbeaten in the league and have won their last two matches 4-1 and 5-1. It's a sell-out, a different surface for the visitors, and the Dons face a team in flying form. The ingredients are all there for an upset.
The visitors were described as "not working hard enough" against Bristol Rovers, and they can't do afford to do that here. After all, plenty of these Hyde players can put themselves in the shop window with a performance in front of the BBC cameras.
Lay MK Dons 0.5pt @ 1.25
Newport County 2.90 v Walsall 2.44, the draw 3.65
Saturday 4th November 17:15, live on S4C (Sky Channel 134)
The FA Cup first round wasn't kind to Walsall this time last year, and they suffered a loss against non-league Macclesfield at the Banks's Stadium to end any hope of a money-spinning run. With that in mind, and facing a tricky tie in Wales on Saturday evening, I am not in a mad rush to get involved with their price - which isn't big enough to consider for the Draw No Bet.
Walsall will need to manage the expectancy that comes with playing against lower-ranked opposition; and with an away record in League One of W2 D2 L4, I am not sure they are up to it.
Newport have the second-best defensive record in their division, and with only four goals conceded at Rodney Parade (only Coventry can better that), that immediately offers hope in backing the hosts here. Their League Two form has been somewhat stuttering, though. Giveth and then take away.
If you are weighing up the Over 2.5 Goals here, Walsall are not easy to predict with a 4/8 record, whilst the Exiles are worse with a 2/7 record at home. The Under 2.5 Goals was priced up at 1.70 on Thursday - and that's shorter than backing Newport on the Draw No Bet.
Both teams head into the weekend following losses. County were missing a few players in the defeat to Notts County, whilst Walsall lost their unbeaten home record in the league against Southend. The first 20 minutes of that match were dire.
The Saddlers have done us a favour with The Draw this term, and with their record of five 1-1 scorelines this term, that is most definitely a bet to consider trading in the Correct Score market.
The away side probably have the best game-changer in Erhun Oztumer. He's the diminutive creator who has scored seven this term (including two at Doncaster recently) and suits the 3-4-1-2 system that Jon Whitney uses. However, Newport's defensive record sways me, in what potentially could be a low-scoring affair.
Back Newport County Draw No Bet 0.5pt @ 1.90
Chorley 4.30 v Fleetwood Town 1.70, the draw 3.75
Monday 6th November 19:45, live on BT Sport 1
This derby clash for the FA Cup first round at Victory Park will highlight the managerial skills of Matt Jansen, who is in charge of National League North outfit Chorley. The former England international might be pleased or relieved he is not facing the Fleetwood from last season. The Cod Army really were terrific 12 months ago, but they have not quite found their stride this time around.
Chorley have mostly been an Under 2.5 team this term at Victory Park, with seven of nine games hitting the target. Two of those were 0-0s. On the same market, Fleetwood are 4/8 this term away from home, but are quite erratic. They've suffered heavy defeats on the road, but also chalked up a 1-0 win at Northampton.
The prices for this makes it a tricky one to call, as I don't like the odds of Fleetwood to win, but their counter-attacking style could suit the game. Chorley however have only conceded six at home this term, and I will lean towards few goals.
Back Under 2.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 1.85