Outright pick Del Potro a solid favourite over Isner
As with Wednesday, there were several surprise results, with the veteran Julien Benneteau easing past David Goffin, while as suspected, Lucas Pouille was over-rated by the market and was defeated by Jack Sock.
Our outright pick, Juan Martin Del Potro, got past Robin Haase and in today's opener, faces the big-serving American, John Isner, who needed to win two tiebreaks to get the better of Grigor Dimitrov in three sets.
For this match, the market is certainly taking into account Del Potro's strong level indoors - the Argentine is 10-1 this year, holding serve 87.2% and breaking opponents 29.4% - and has priced him as a 1.41 favourite, which looks pretty correct.
Strong serves make tiebreaks probable
Given that both players are stronger on serve than return, it should contribute to a serve-orientated match, and I note that my model made the likelihood of a first set tiebreak at around 47%.
The Sportsbook is again accurate in this side market for an Isner match this week, pricing up this eventuality at even money. Del Potro has beaten Isner six times in eight matches, with a first set tiebreak occurring on three occasions, and tiebreaks have decided six of 18 career head to head sets.
Krajinovic a heavy underdog in the match of his life
Following this, the in-form Filip Krajinovic faces arguably the biggest match of his life as he takes on Rafa Nadal, with the Spaniard a very heavy 1.11 favourite.
Again, my model agreed with this line, and it would take a very brave man to back the Serb - who has never broken the top 50 - to get the better of the King of Clay, but it will certainly be worthwhile to use this match to gauge Krajinovic's level, with him having played a number of mediocre opponents in his recent strong run of victories.
Benneteau looking to reverse old head to head deficit
The aforementioned Benneteau's reward for getting past Goffin in yesterday's third round match sees the French veteran face Marin Cilic, and attempt to reverse a 3-0 head to head deficit. While a 3-0 head to head deficit sounds extremely negative, all matches were played in 2008 and 2009, and Benneteau won at least a set in all three despite being a 4.00+ underdog in all of those.
My model priced Cilic at 1.33 here, a little bigger than the market, which is at 1.27, but this discrepancy isn't enough to act on here.
Sock with underdog value against Verdasco
Finally, the night match at 2000 UK time sees the most even-looking match on the schedule, with Fernando Verdasco matching up against Jack Sock. Both players have had a relatively mediocre August and September, but having managed to pick up several wins since, although both are arguably still not nearly at peak level.
Verdasco is favoured by the market, being the 2.26 slight favourite, but my model actually made this very even, so taking Sock here is a logical play.
Sock's serve data on hard/indoor hard courts are much better than Verdasco's, although the Spanish veteran does have better numbers on return and on a day with little pre-match value, taking the American looks like the best spot.
Recommended Bets
Back Jack Sock at 2.26 against Fernando Verdasco
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