The big match tactical view: Back Goals at the Allianz and Mestalla

Infogol analyst Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

Atalanta to pile more misery on Brescia

Brescia vs Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00 GMT
Brescia come into this game rock bottom of Serie A after five straight defeats, with their most recent losses being their two worst performances of the season to date.
They were beaten 4-0 at home by a really poor Torino team (xG: BRE 0.53 - 3.53 TOR) before going down 3-0 at Roma (xG: ROM 2.27 - 0.35 BRE), creating very few chances in either game.
Brescia rate as the second worst team in the league this season according to xG, so it is no surprise to see them struggling, and their process really is terrible (0.99 xGF, 1.74 xGA per game), meaning they are at a different level to this talented Atalanta side.
Atalanta come into this without a win in four league games after a 3-1 defeat against league leaders Juventus last weekend, though that was a game they were very unfortunate to lose, dominating the xG battle (xG: ATA 2.70 - 1.24 JUV).
They still boast the best attacking process in Serie A, averaging a huge 2.35 xGF per game, so will create chances here, and fortunately for them they face a blunt Brescia attack here.
Whenever Atalanta play, goals usually follow, but I think Brescia's poor attack may not get on the scoresheet here, and Infogol has found value, calculating a 48% (2.08) chance of BTTS 'no', so with it available at 2.38 (42%) on the Exchange, that is the obvious play.

Flick to oversee more goals

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Bayern Munich have been on a rampage ever since sacking Niko Kovač and replacing him with interim coach Hans-Dieter Flick, as they have played four and won four, kept four clean-sheets and scored 16 goals.
In the league they have dismantled both Dortmund (xG: BMU 3.93 - 0.64 DOR) and Fortuna Düsseldorf (xG: FOR 0.57 - 3.87 BMU), creating over 3.5 xGF in both matches, while conceding less than 0.70 xGA.
Now this is obviously a small sample size, but the early signs are that they are an unstoppable force once again, and I can see them putting on another sensational show here in front of their own fans.
Bayer Leverkusen come into this game in 9th spot in the Bundesliga after a poor run of form that has seen them win just one of their last five league games, but they were very unfortunate not to make that two out of five-last weekend against Freiburg (xG: B04 3.82 - 1.44 FRE).
Peter Bosz's side haven't been as bad as their league position suggests this season, ranking as the fourth best team in the league according to expected goals, but while they do create good chances in matches (1.90 xGF per game), they are vulnerable also (1.49 xGA per game).
I think we are set for another excellent and entertaining game in the Bundesliga, with two attack-minded sides going head to head at the Allianz, so goals are on the cards.

Infogol calculates a 56% (1.79) chance of over 3.5 goals, so the 1.88 (53%) on offer on the Exchange represents value.

Much needed win for Lille

Lille vs Dijon
Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Lille have slipped right down the Ligue 1 table after a poor run of results, winning just one of their last seven league games after a convincing defeat to leaders PSG last weekend.
They were unfortunate not to get three points against Metz in their last home game (xG: LIL 1.43 - 0.12 MET), and in fact, their home form has been excellent this season, registering five wins and two draws in seven games.
Lille's process at home is streets clear of every team in the league bar PSG, as they generate an average of 1.91 xGF per game, and allow an average of just 0.60 xGA per game.
Dijon beat Rennes last weekend to move out of the relegation zone, but 73% of their points this season have been won at home, with only one win and one draw to their name on the road.
In terms of expected goals, Dijon are a bottom half away team, with a poor attacking process (1.00 xGF per game) and a poor defensive process (1.46 xGA per game), so this game really is set up for Lille to bounce back to winning ways.
Infogol thinks Lille have a 67% (1.49) chance of getting the three points in this one, which means the 1.54 (65%) on the Exchange represents a small amount value.

Goals on the cards in Mestalla

Valencia vs Villarreal
Saturday, 20:00 GMT
Valencia conceded a last-minute winner last weekend away at Real Betis, but they rightly lost the game according to expected goals (xG: BET 1.80 - 1.03 VAL).
So far this season, Valencia really haven't been that impressive. They sit 13th in our xG table with one of the worst defensive processes in La Liga, allowing a huge 1.76 xGA per game.
They possess obvious attacking talent, and have been playing a more open and expansive game since Albert Celades came in, meaning their matches have become extremely entertaining.
Villarreal have lost three of their last four games in La Liga, and none to any of the bigger clubs in Spain, which is a cause for concern.
They have been unfortunate in that time, deserving more points than they have collected, but after a bright start to the season, they are slowly sinking down the table (yes that was an intentional Yellow Submarine pun).
However, they rate as one of the more unlucky teams in the league this season according to expected goals, as they sit a lofty 3rd in our xG table.
Villarreal have the second best attacking process in La Liga (2.12 xGF per game) - behind only Real Madrid - so will create chances in every game, whether they are in form or not.
All of this points to a high-scoring game between two exciting attacking teams, and Infogol calculates a huge amount of value in backing over 2.5 goals here.
We give a 68% (1.47) chance of over 2.5 goals, and with 1.79 (56%) available on the Exchange, this has the be the value bet of the weekend.

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