Premier League Score Predictor with Infogol GW15: More misery for Silva
After a 10.0 winner in GW14, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back, using expected goals (xG) to predict all the correct scores of a busy midweek in the Premier League, so you don't have to...
Entertaining draw at Selhurst
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
Crystal Palace snapped a five-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Burnley, though Roy Hodgson's side were extremely fortunate to get the three points after being comfortably second best on xG (xG: BUR 2.26 - 0.92 CRY). They rank as only the fourth best team in the league on xG, so aren't doing to much right, and their defensive frailties can be exploited here. Bournemouth were comfortably beaten by Tottenham at the weekend despite the 3-2 scoreline suggesting otherwise, as they continue to be an entertaining watch, with goals at both ends the norm. Both of these sides are conceding an average of more than 1.80 xGA per game, so Infogol thinks we will see goals here (65% BTTS, 63% O2.5), though we give Bournemouth a 61% chance of getting something from the game - 2-2.
Back the @ 2-2 17.50
City to get over the line this time
Burnley vs Manchester City
Burnley were extremely unfortunate not to get at least a point against Crystal Palace last time out, as they yet again created a host of chances and conceded very few. Only Manchester City and Chelsea have created more non-penalty big chances than Burnley, and only Leicester have conceded fewer, so with Burnley sitting 6th in our xG table, this won't be an easy game for City. Pep Guardiola's side were also extremely unfortunate at the weekend, as they were held by Newcastle despite generating more than 12x the amount of xG (xG: NEW 0.23 - 2.93 MCI). Infogol calculates that they would win that game 91% of the time, so it was a good performance, and one that needs replicating here. They are averaging 3.00 xGF per game this season, so will create chances, but have only kept 5 clean sheets in 14 games, so they do give their opponents opportunities. Infogol calculates a 63% chance City will win here, with goals on the cards (64% O2.5, 63% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the @ 1-3 12.00
Back the @ 1-3 12.00
Chelsea to bounce back
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Chelsea were beaten for the second time in two games at the weekend, going down 1-0 at home to West Ham, though they were unfortunate to lose according to xG (xG: CHE 2.92 - 1.24 WHU). They continue to rack up plenty of good chances in matches (2.11 xGF per game), so will cause Villa plenty of issues here. Aston Villa were fortunate to get a point at Manchester United (xG: MUN 2.29 - 1.38 AST), as continue to look vulnerable defensively. In fact, when playing away from home, Dean Smith's side allow an average of 2.69 xGA per game, so really aren't great travellers. All three of Chelsea's clean-sheets this season have come at Stamford Bridge, and Infogol thinks they can make it four here (46% BTTS) in a low-scoring (49% O2.5) home win (65%) - 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 8.00
Another high-scoring win for Foxes
Leicester vs Watford
Leicester made it six straight league wins with a last gasp victory over Everton on Sunday, meaning that they remain Liverpool's closes challengers for the title. It was a fully deserved win for the Foxes, and their underlying process continues to improve, posting averages of 1.75 xGF and 1.08 xGA per game. Watford parted with yet another manager over the weekend following a 2-1 loss to Southampton, a fair result after a poor performance that leaves them rock bottom. They are posting poorer underlying numbers than at the start of the season, meaning performances have got worst, and it is hard to make a case for them causing an upset here. Infogol thinks the Hornets will get on the scoresheet here (53% BTTS), in a high-scoring (62%) Leicester win (67%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 11.50.
No revenge for Mourinho
Manchester United vs Tottenham
Mourinho returns to Old Trafford, with his Spurs side in good form, and they jumped above United at the weekend after Ole's side could only draw 2-2 with Aston Villa. United are a strange case this season, as, when using the eye test they look like a mid-table team, but their underlying numbers suggest they have been extremely unfortunate this season. They rank as the fourth best team on xG this season, and were again unfortunate at the weekend against Villa (xG: MUN 2.29 - 1.38 AST). Their process is strong (1.87 xGF, 1.15 xGA per game), and I feel as though they are being hugely underestimated here. Spurs made it three wins from three under Mourinho after a 3-2 success over Bournemouth, but they have conceded twice in all three games, something we don't expect from a Mourinho team. They have been impressive in attack though, averaging 2.60 xGF per game since Jose's arrival, but they come up against a good defensive team based on xG here. Infogol thinks United will win this one (49%), in a hugely entertaining game (58% BTTS, 56% O2.5) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 11.00
Saints to go back-to-back
Southampton vs Norwich
Southampton got their season back on track with a fully deserved win over Watford at the weekend (xG: SOU 1.79 - 0.64 WAT), and face another relegation six-pointer here. Their last two matches have been very impressive, being unfortunate to only draw with Arsenal before winning last week, meaning this team is trending in the right direction after a tough schedule. Norwich have also impressed since the international break, picking up a fully deserved win against Everton before holding Arsenal to a 2-2 draw. However, based on xG, Norwich are in bigger trouble than Southampton, as the Canaries process is extremely poor (1.17 xGF, 2.21 xGF per game). This is a big game for both, but Infogol sees Southampton making it back-to-back wins (55%), with goals on the cards again (61% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.80
West Ham to get back to losing ways
Wolves vs West Ham
Wolves extended their unbeaten run to nine in the Premier League after a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United, a fair result between two of the leagues very best organised teams. Nuno's side continue to climb our xG table (8th), with performances trending in the right direction, which is a huge worry for West Ham here. Manuel Pellegrini is a lucky man. West Ham were comfortably second best against Chelsea at the weekend, allowing nearly 3 xG but somehow keeping a clean-sheet, but I feel that their 1-0 win papered over some massive cracks in this team. Defensively they are a shambles, and continue to be so, allowing an average of 2.30 xGA per game in their last eight, so Wolves will be looking forward to facing them. West Ham will likely get on the scoresheet (59% BTTS), but Infogol thinks Wolves will get the win (60%) in a high-scoring game (63% O2.5) - 2-1.
Back the @ 2-1 9.00
Liverpool to heap more misery on Everton
Liverpool vs Everton
Marco Silva just can't get a break at the minute, conceding a last minute winner to Leicester at the weekend, and then he has to face the runaway league leaders Liverpool in midweek! Liverpool just keep on winning, and despite a back against the wall job for the last 15 minutes against Brighton, the Reds defended very well and rightly got the win. Their process is fantastic (2.04 xGF, 1.11 xGA per game), and it is just hard to see them doing anything other than win this game. Though Everton conceded late against Leicester, they rightly lost the game according to xG, being second best for the second straight week. The fight was there in that game, but the quality wasn't, and that will likely be the case again here, and it does feel a matter of when rather than if Silva gets sacked. Liverpool are expected to win (62%), but Infogol sees this being another tight scoreline, with Everton getting on the scoresheet (52% BTTS) in an entertaining game (56% O2.5). The Reds have won seven Premier League games by a 2-1 scoreline this season, so why not take a punt on this being an eighth? - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.20
Newcastle to get unlikely point
Sheffield United vs Newcastle
Sheffield United got a good point away at Wolves last time out, extending their unbeaten run to seven league games, though only two of those have been wins. The Blades sit 7th in the league, but rank lower in our xG table (13th), having been fortunate in defence this season (13 conceded, 20.94 xGA). Newcastle held Manchester City to a 2-2 draw on Saturday, but were hugely fortunate to get a point (xG: NEW 0.23 - 2.93 MCI) after a poor attacking display. Steve Bruce's team have lost just one of their last five games, and have put in some good performances in that time, notably against West Ham and Bournemouth, so they are capable of springing a surprise. Infogol thinks Newcastle have a decent chance of getting something from this game (55%), in what should be a low-scoring (47% O2.5) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 6.60
Still no win for Arsenal
Arsenal vs Brighton
Arsenal's woes continued despite the sacking of Unai Emery, as they looked woeful once again at the weekend in a 2-2 draw with Norwich. Defensively they look wide open, and going forward they are hugely reliant on set-pieces right now to create chances, so I cant see their fortunes turning anytime soon. Brighton put in a decent display at Liverpool at the weekend, and while they come into this game on the back of three straight defeats, Graham Potter's side have played Manchester United, Leicester and Liverpool. On the whole this season, Brighton have shown they are extremely capable, and they play brave football, which I think will prove hugely rewarding at the Emirates. They create good chances (1.48 xGF per game), and Infogol thinks they have a decent chance of avoiding defeat here (43%), with goals on the cards yet again (59% BTTS, 61% O2.5) in a game involving Arsenal - 2-2.
Back the 2-2 @ 15.00
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