The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 16
Joe closed the gap on Dan in the battle during the midweek round and is looking to the Manchester clubs to deliver another winner as our quintet of editors return to the betting fray...
Villa to net in another Foxes win
Back Leicester Win & BTTS-YES @ 11/5 v Aston Villa Sunday, 14:00 Live on Sky Sports Premier League
*Dan is away
Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£64.20
Three points but no clean sheet for City
Joe Dyer Back Man City win/both teams to score double v Man Utd @ 2.63 Saturday, 17:30
Once again I return to the well for a Manchester City both teams to score bet but I make no apologies! It's paid dividends these last two weeks and the price, to my eye, justifies the investment.
It's the Manchester derby for Pep's boys on Saturday evening and goals seem hugely likely with over 2.5 available to back at 1.54. City have lost last year's defensive solidity, going eight game without a clean sheet now. They came close on Tuesday night at Burnley of course but conceded late on.
And I'm sure United will give them more of an examination than the Clarets. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have scored 14 in six games since being blanked at Bournemouth and in Marcus Rashford they have a goalscorer in fine form.
Factor in the home win with the both teams to score bet and we have a decent wager at 2.63. City don't have a great recent record in the fixture but their record at The Etihad this season - W5-D1-L1 - offers a degree of confidence in their ability to get the better of a team that trail them by a mighty 11 points through the first 15 games.
Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£39.90
Toffees in tatters
Jasmine Baba Back Chelsea to win against Everton @2.08 Saturday, 12:30 Live on BT Sport 1
The Marco Silva era is over. It's not difficult to see why Everton owner Farhad Moshiri fired the Portuguese manager. Despite spending big money during during the summer transfer window, the Toffees find themselves in the relegation zone - only winning four of their 15 games so far. Their last defeat was a 5-2 thrashing in the Merseyside derby by Liverpool, and while that result isn't completely surprising, they've conceded two or more goals in seven of their last eight losses.
Chelsea had a small blip against the defending champions Manchester City, where they lost 2-1 but played well, and then at home to West Ham losing 1-0, but those defeats seemed to be behind them when they beat Aston Villa 2-1. Not only that but Frank Lampard's side sit fourth in the league and have an extremely good record away from home, only losing away to Manchester United (on the first day of the season) and Manchester City.
They have won the other five and getting more than evens for the London side to beat their opponents is outstanding value, as I expected them to be a lot shorter against an Everton side that are, quite frankly, in chaos.
Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: +£2.00
Goals on the south coast
Jake Osgathorpe Back BTTS and Over 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Wolves @2.68 (Same Game Multi) Sunday, 16:30 Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Well, I have to say, I am hugely looking forward to this game, and I am very happy that it is on TV, as I see this as two progressive Premier League sides facing off.
Brighton helped me land my GW15 bet thanks to avoiding defeat at the Emirates, but they went one better and got the win over Arsenal, and rightly so according to expected goals (xG: ARS 1.03 - 1.99 BHA) after a fantastic display in which they limited Arsenal well and created good chances seemingly at will.
They won the midfield battle - which I highlighted as key on Monday - due to the fact that they have a better midfield than Arsenal, but this is a much more even battle in that arena, so they may not be as free-flowing as at the Emirates against a much better organised Wolves team.
Graham Potter's side are a different proposition to last season, and their process is good (1.51 xGF, 1.77 xGA per game) especially at home, where they have performed excellently, and the bottom line is that they are fun to watch, with chances at both ends a regular occurrence.
Wolves jumped up to fifth in the table following a comfortable win over West Ham, another fully deserved win for Nuno's side who have found their levels of last season after a sluggish start.
Process wise, they are better than Brighton (1.61 xGF, 1.33 xGA per game), and they know the three at the back system better than Brighton, have shown how adept they are to playing Thursday-Sunday (or Wednesday this week), which could be a big task for Brighton who aren't use to it.
I see goals here between two attack-minded sides, with both set to have a go at eachother in an open game. The market doesn't see many goals in this, so I'm happy to take the market on, and backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in a Same Game Multi at 2.68 will do me nicely.
Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: -£4.10
Reds can lead early before winning again
Mike Norman Back Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT @2.32 v Bournemouth Saturday 15:00
Liverpool have won the last four meetings with Bournemouth by scorelines of 3-0 (twice) and 4-0 (twice). The two 4-0 wins were both at the Vitality Stadium, so with the Reds running away with the Premier League title, and Bournemouth in quite poor form, then the away win almost looks a bit of a banker.
The one concern of course is that Jurgen Klopp's men just can't keep a clean sheet these days. In fact it's now 13 consecutive games in all competitions that the Reds have failed to keep prevent the opposition from scoring.
I expect that to change very soon, and it could easily be in this game with the Cherries in poor form. Eddie Howe's men have lost four on the spin now and they've failed to score a goal in 50% of their last 10 matches.
So a Liverpool win it is for me then, and a quite easy one at that, but we'll have to enhance the price by backing Klopp's men to lead at the interval. In those 13 games that they've failed to keep a clean sheet Liverpool have scored 35 goals with 16 of those coming in the first half.