Crystal Palace v Bournemouth: Cherries can pick up a point
Dave Tindall previews the Premier League clash between Crystal Palace and Bournemouth on Tuesday evening...
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth Tuesday, 19:30 Live on Amazon Prime
Palace still can't find home rhythm
Crystal Palace moved back into the top half of the table with a victory over Burnley on Saturday that most didn't really see coming.
The hosts would have been pencilled in as solid bets to beat a Palace side which had lost four and drawn one of their previous five games but goals from Wilfried Zaha and Jeffrey Schlupp made a mockery of any idea that the southern softies wouldn't fancy it at Turf Moor on a cold afternoon.
And yet, from another point of view, a Palace road victory is nothing new. They have won 10 of their 18 points away from home this season while only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham accumulated more points on their travels than Roy Hodgson's men in 2018/2019.
However, despite an often bouncing atmosphere at Selhurst Park, Palace struggle at home (second least away wins last term and just two out of seven this time).
When asked to make the running they struggle and their tally of five home goals tells its own story.
Cherries look for capital gains
It's a second trip to London in four days for Bournemouth, who returned home frustrated after a 3-2 loss at Tottenham on Saturday.
Although they nearly completed a memorable fightback from 3-0 down, boss Eddie Howe was left to lament how they got themselves in that position in the first place.
It means, despite pockets of promise, they've lost their last three Premier League games (2-1 at Newcastle, 2-1 at home to Wolves and 3-2 against Spurs) since beating Manchester United 1-0 at the Vitality.
In terms of away form, they've picked up just one point in the last 12, a 0-0 draw at bottom club Bournemouth.
The Cherries are 12th and need a win quickly to halt a concerning slide.
Uncertainty in Palace price
After their morale-boosting win at Burnley, the hosts should enjoy another chance to get back out there but their iffy home form is ingrained and it's reflected in the market. Crystal Palace are odds-against 2.16 to beat seemingly out-of-form visitors.
Bournemouth are 3.70 to bounce back with a win while The Draw is 3.55.
Goals have been plentiful in past meetings
If you're not a close observer of either team and don't recall recent meetings, you might guess that they were tight affairs, perhaps settled by the odd goal. Wrong!
Last season, Palace won this late-season fixture 5-3, Bournemouth won the earlier October meetings 2-1 while in the previous campaign the duo played out a pair of 2-2 draws.
That's a 4-for-4 strike rate for Over 2.5 goals and it's the underdog at 2.02. Such a punt can obviously be justified although I'd probably want it a higher odds-against price given that there's been just 12 combined goals in Palace's seven home games this season.
To be fair to Palace, their last three home games have been against Liverpool, Leicester and Man City and they lost them all.
However, Everton and a then still struggling Wolves emerged with a point from visits to Selhurst Park and, given that two of the last four head-to-heads have ended in stalemate, I think the draw is worth a bet even though it's slightly the default option given the lack of trust in either.
As for Both teams to Score, 'Yes' is the first thought although that's just 1.82.
Zaha back on track but Wilson the bet
After failing to score in this first 13 games this season, Wilfried Zaha now has two in two after goals at home to Liverpool and away to Burnley.
Hopefully for Hodgson, he's turned a corner now and his goal output starts to match his talent but Zaha still remains an unreliable finisher.
I had a nice 9/2 winner when backing Harry Wilson to score against Tottenham and the on-loan Liverpool star now has has the same number of Premier League goals (six) this season as Mo Salah!
He netted twice at Spurs despite coming off the bench and Howe must be tempted to play him from the start here.
I'm happy to leave some chips on the table and back Wilson again at 4/1. As well as his sensational free-kicks, he has a clarity and calmness in his finishing that many, including Zaha, do not.