Bundesliga Betting: Champions to get off to a flying start

Bayern Munich v Hamburg
Friday August 14, 19:30
Live on BT Sport Europe

Clubs like Bayern Munich are used to being in control of their own destiny, so the uncertainty surrounding Pep Guardiola's future is somewhat jarring. The Catalan maestro has one season remaining on his current deal, and like a coquettish temptress rendering a suitor off-balance, he's keeping his employers guessing about his plans beyond next summer.

Although this "will he, won't he" controversy may have an adverse effect if it drags on too long, I still think Bayern will have enough sparkling talent in their squad to win an unprecedented fourth consecutive Bundesliga title, and you can read more of my thoughts on the title race here.

If we concentrate on Friday night's opener, it's hard to see anything but a hefty home win. Bayern's recent record against Hamburg at the Allianz Arena is remarkable - in the last five home games against HSV they have won 6-0, 5-0, 9-2, 3-1 and 8-0.

Although Bayern didn't win the Supercup against Wolfsburg a fortnight ago, Arjen Robben and new signing Douglas Costa looked exceptionally dangerous out wide, while Arturo Vidal has a good chance of dominating midfield on his Bundesliga debut for Bayern.

Hamburg escaped relegation by the narrowest of margins last term, as a last-gasp equaliser from Marcelo Diaz saved their bacon against Karlsruher in the relegation playoff. Any HSV fans hopeful of avoiding another season of struggle got a rude awakening last weekend, as the Redshorts were dumped out of the German Cup by fourth-tier side Carl Zeiss Jena.

Hamburg have made an astute but controversial signing by picking up centre-back Emir Spahic, who was sacked by Bayer Leverkusen for head-butting a steward. His experience and grit will help in the long-term, but it will take time to organise a back-four which had serious leaks last season. Underachievers like Heiko Westermann, Marcell Jansen and Rafa Van der Vaart have been shown the door, and although there is competition for places throughout the squad, there are many who have a point to prove.

It's tempting to go for Over 3.5 Goals at 1.98, but I don't trust Hamburg to score against the Bundesliga's best defence, so I'll back the hosts -2.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.85. Bayern won seven of their 17 Bundesliga home games last season by at least three goals, including that 8-0 demolition of Hamburg.

Recommended Bet
Back Bayern Munich -2.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.85