Football Bet of the Day: Visitors will struggle to hold back the River

River Plate v San Martin San Juan
Monday August 17, 22:00
Available on Betfair Live Video

I have fond memories of Prague after spending a week at the glamorous Hotel Duo a few years ago, and now so does Tobias, after Slavia thrashed Jihlava 4-0 to land his Over 2.5 Goals bet.A winning week for TG, so he deserves a few days off.

We're starting our week with the South American champions River Plate, who recently won the Copa Libertadores with a 3-0 aggregate success against Mexican side Tigres. Former River playmaker Marcelo Gallardo has been a roaring success as coach, despite the fact he is still just 39, and that River is only his second coaching job.

Having been crowned as continental champions, Los Millonarios now turn their attention to trying to win the domestic league title in Argentina. Teams that concentrate on winning the Libertadores often sacrifice league success, but River are well placed. They are third, six points behind leaders San Lorenzo with two games in hand.

Tonight's opponents San Martin San Juan are one of several clubs who have benefited from the expansion of the top flight to 30 teams, and they are a respectable 14th in the standings. CoachCarlos Mayor has made his side tough to beat, and they have drawn ten of their 19 league games so far, losing just four times. All four of those defeats have come away from home.

There is a statistical quirk in San Martin San Juan's results that we hope to exploit tonight. They have been behind at half-time in more matches this season than any other club in the division. In 12 of their 19 games the Verdinegro have been behind at the break, and that's also true of six of their ten away games.

River Plate are expected to win at home against a newly-promoted mid-table team, but theiroutright odds of 1.41 are prohibitively short. However, if we back River to be leading at half-time, we get odds of 1.97, which is a more attractive proposition. You could back River/River in the HT/FT market at 2.10, but it's worth noting that the visitors have come back from a half-time deficit to grab a draw or a win eight times this season.

Recommended Bet

Back River Plate in the Half Time market at 1.97