Football Bet of the Day: Wild Tigers set to be tamed

Hobro v Nordsjaelland
Friday August 21, 17:30

Last night we saw the value of the Draw No Bet market, as our boys Fjolnir blew a 1-0 lead in the 89th minute to draw 1-1 with Valur in Iceland's Urvalsdeild. An odds-against winner went west, but at least we got our stake back, which saved the laptop from being thrown across the room.

We're not taking that money very far before reinvesting it. This evening we'll check out a Danish Superliga clash between struggling Hobro and Nordsjaelland. If you're lucky I'll buy you some Lurpak, the butter of the Gods (other butter brands are available).

Both of these teams ended up in mid-table last season, with Hobro seventh, and Nordsjaelland a point and a place better off. Hobro's achievement was far more impressive than Nordsjaelland's, given that last season was their first ever in the Danish top flight. Six of their 11 wins came at their 4,000-capacity DS Arena in North Jutland.

Hobro are currently bottom of the standings after losing three of their first five games, but Nordsjaelland are only above them on goal difference. Bearing in mind the Wild Tigers won the title in 2012, it's been something of a jarring decline for the men from Farum.

Hobro are 3.65 outsiders here, and I feel that price is too big. In their two home games this season, Hobro only lost 1-0 to AaB because of a 90th-minute goal, and they drew 1-1 with Viborg. If we stretch back into last season, Hobro have only lost two of their last ten home games in the Superliga, and they beat Nordsjaelland 1-0 in February.

Nordsjaelland have played two away games this season, and there isn't much to encourage potential away backers at a price of 2.22. They were thrashed 3-0 at Randers, and although a 1-1 draw at Copenhagen looks impressive, the hosts had a man sent off after just 28 minutes. If we stretch back into last season, we see that Nordsjaelland have lost six of their last seven away games, and have picked up just one road victory in 2015.

There are several ways you can play this. You could back the hosts outright, but given their stuttering start I'd bring the draw into play as well. Hobro are available on a Draw No Bet basis at 2.62, but I'm going to back them +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.06, which gives us an odds-against winner if Hobro win, and a half-win if the game is drawn. Of course you could also lay the visitors at 2.22.

Recommended Bet

Back Hobro +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.06