Melbourne v Collingwood
Monday 3:20pm at MCG

Round 12 concludes with the traditional Queen’s Birthday Monday clash between Melbourne and Collingwood with both teams sitting just outside the Top 8.
Melbourne are ninth on the ladder and have gone loss-win over the last six weeks. Prior to the bye they posted their second biggest win of the year over Gold Coast. The Dees have lost their last four at the MCG. Melbourne rank fifth in scoring and eighth in defence so their ninth positioning underestimates the standard they’ve played at.
Collingwood have certainly struck some form of late and have ascended to 10th on the ladder on the back of three straight wins of 18-plus. The Magpies rank an excellent fourth defensively but rank only 13th in scoring. Collingwood have not allowed more than 84 in their last four at the MCG.
Stats That Matter
– Melbourne have won the last three against Collingwood, all by margins of 35-plus.
– The Demons have covered 5 of the 7 clashes with the Magpies since 2012.
– The under has hit in 5 of the 7 matches between the teams since 2012.
– The Demons have failed to cover their last six at the MCG.
– Melbourne are 6-13 ATS as a favourite at the MCG since 2012 including a 3-8 ATS record when favoured by less than three goals.
– Collingwood are 12-24 ATS in day matches at the MCG.
– The Magpies have covered their last four as an underdog at the MCG.
– The Pies have covered seven straight and 9 of their last 10 as an underdog.
– Collingwood are 15-9 under after conceding 85 or fewer when they’re an underdog.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Melbourne 4-6, Collingwood 6-5
2017 Over-Under: Melbourne 5-5, Collingwood 5-6
What To Expect
Collingwood are the bet to finish off Round 12. They have just been cash money as an underdog of late and it is surprising they enter this as an outsider. The Demons are horrific as a favourite at the MCG. The Demons have the recent history but the big angles are for Collingwood here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 12
Recommended Bet
Collingwood +10.5 ($1.91)
Player Markets
Taylor Adams has hit 115 or more in 6 of the last 7 weeks and has delivered most of the season with an average of 118.7. Off a performance of 131 last week, he can score big again.
Recommended Bet
Taylor Adams 120+ Fantasy Points ($1.72) 

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