Richmond v Sydney
Saturday 1:45pm at MCG

The Tigers are surprisingly entrenched in the Top 4 and even more remarkably, the Swans are anchored in the bottom-third of the ladder and are desperate to make a run.
Richmond have enjoyed a remarkable season with a 7-4 record that has them fourth on the ladder. Richmond ended a four-game losing streak with strong wins over Essendon and North Melbourne. The Tigers have conceded more than 90 just once this year, while they have conceded sub-70 four times including their last two. The Tigers rank second in defence and 11thin attack.
Sydney have not really been able to get going this season but their gritty win over premiers the Western Bulldogs. The Swans are up to 14th on the ladder with a 4-7 record. The Swans have won four of their last five and really should be riding a five-game winning streak. The Swans have not conceded more than 81 over that five-game win streak.
Stats That Matter
– Richmond surprisingly hold a 6-4 edge over Sydney in their last 10 meetings.
– The Tigers have covered 4 of the last 5 games against the Swans.
– The last three meetings have gone over the total.
– Richmond have covered all three games at the MCG since 2012.
– Richmond have gone under the total in 9 of their last 10 at the MCG.
– Sydney are 6-11 ATS since 2012 at the MCG including a 1-7 ATS record as a favourite.
– Richmond have covered just 6 of their last 18 day matches at the MCG with the under 11-7 ATS.
– Sydney are 1-4 ATS in day matches at the MCG since 2012.
– The Tigers have covered 9 of their last 12 at the MCG as an underdog.
– The Swans are 13-9 ATS interstate after conceding fewer than 60.
– Sydney are 7-2 over as an interstate favourite of fewer than two goals.
– Richmond are 22-8 under in Melbourne after scoring 100 points.
Betting Data
2017 Line: Richmond 9-2, Sydney 4-7
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 2-9, Sydney 6-5
What To Expect
Richmond should be favoured in this one and are a bet but the top play in the game is the under. The Tigers are a huge under team and that is particularly true at the MCG where they have gone under in 9 of the last 10.The Tigers are also 22-8 under in Melbourne after posting 100 points. This game will be a defensive, scrappy slugfest.
How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 9
Recommended Bet
Under 168.5 points ($1.88)
Player Markets
This price for Dustin Martin is totally out of whack. Martin has scored 120-plus in each of his last three and in six of 11 games this year. He is averaging 116.7.
Recommended Bet
Dustin Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.15) 

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