Atlanta United have played fewer home games than any other MLS team this season, and after eventually finding a way past the Charleston Battery in the US Open Cup in midweek, they'll be confident ahead of the visit of the Columbus Crew.
Atlanta are far from perfect, but are up there with the most exciting teams to watch in MLS, and that's particularly true at home. They've won three of their five home games so far, and averaged 2.6 goals in them, which is the second highest number in the whole of MLS.
When you consider that only two teams have conceded more than Columbus' 17 on the road, you start to feel that a home win as well as goals could be on the cards.
Atlanta are also buoyed by the return of Josef Martinez from injury: the striker started the season wonderfully, with five goals in his first three games, and it was significant to see him get on the scoresheet in midweek. If you add him to their existing front three, then you have an even more irresistible forward line, one that the Crew will struggle to rein in.
And the stats also back up the influence of Martinez: the team averages three goals per 90 minutes with him in it, 1.6 when he's out. It may be a relatively small sample, but it's still worth noting.
We know all about Atlanta's potential going forward, and when you add the fact that the Crew's last six MLS games have all gone Over 2.5 Goals, I think that you have the makings of a bet. Over 3.5 Goals will be trading at around the 2.90 mark, and that's a fair price.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Atlanta United v Columbus Crew @ 2.90
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